Gold in neutral mode, awaiting next signal

Gold faces low volatility around 20-day SMA.
Short-term bias looks neutral-to-bearish.

Christina Parthenidou XM

Gold maintained a muted tone around the 2,900 mark as the new week kicked off, disregarding concerns about a potential US economic slowdown. The precious metal continues to hover around its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) for the fourth-consecutive trading day, awaiting a fresh directional catalyst.

Upside momentum quickly faded after a rebound attempt at the start of the month, reinforcing fears that the decline from the all-time high of 2,954 has yet to bottom out.

With the RSI trending downwards and the stochastic oscillator on the verge of a negative crossover, optimism for a bullish continuation is dimming. If the price closes below its 20-day SMA and the 2,900 round-level, attention will shift back to the 2,855 support area. A breach of this floor could pave the way for further downside toward the 50-day SMA, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-February rally at 2,810. A firm drop below the October 2024 high of 2,790 could accelerate losses toward the critical support zone at 2,720.

On the flip side, if gold manages to cross above the nearby resistance of 2,920, bullish forces could initially pause near the top of 2,954 before aiming for a fresh all-time high near 2,980. Beyond that, the rally might extend toward the key trendline region of 3,025-3,050.

In summary, gold currently maintains a neutral-to-bearish stance. A decisive break above or below the 20-day SMA will likely set the stage for the next significant market move.

Author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined the XM investment research department in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics.

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