Gold bent but not yet broken

Alexander Kuptsikevich FxPro

Gold came close to closing lower for the second week in a row, falling to $2372 per troy ounce on Friday morning, $111 below its high on July 17th.

This decline occurred in two impulses, with an intermediate correction in between, and fits within a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement pattern from the initial decline. The extension of the pattern within the classic expansion suggests a downside target near $2320.

On the other hand, gold found buying support on Thursday and early on Friday at the crossover of the 50-day moving average near $2360. This also coincides with the consolidation centre of the repeated pullbacks from April to June. This means that the decline in this area is well within the framework of a correction, and it is not yet possible to claim that the gold rally has broken and that a top has been established for many months and years to come.

Therefore, there are two possible lines of defence for gold in the short term: $2360 and $2320. It is worth keeping a close eye on the price action around these levels. If gold breaks through them with a strong move, we should be prepared for a prolonged decline. If the buyers manage to break the trend near one of these lines, the price may well continue to rise on buyers' encouragement.

Gold's ability to avoid a sell-off in June after breaking the 50-day probably helped it make new highs in July. This story could be repeated if the financial markets avoid another deep sell-off and return to growth even without an official correction (a fall of more than 10% from the peak).

Author

Alexander Kuptsikevich

FxPro

Alexander Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, has been with the company since its foundation. From time to time, he gives commentaries on radio and television. He publishes in major economic and socio-political media.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.