Get the board games out

• The Dollar selling stops on Monday.

• But Dollar buying didn't replace it!

Good Day... And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! What an awful night of sleep, or more precisely, lack of sleep! I'm planning on returning to my recliner as soon as I hit send this morning... Well, my beloved Cardinals are the only team in baseball that has hung 2n losses on Pirates pitching sensation, P. Skenes... To data, that is... And the Monday Night Football game had quite an ending to it, so sports-wise it was a good evening...Neon Trees greet me this morning with their song: Everybody Talks...

And that's very apropos this morning, because that's what's going on... You've got half the markets saying they believe the Fed Heads will cut 50 Basis Points, and you've got the other half saying the cut will be 25 Basis Points... here's Bloomberg.com with their take on this talk in the bond market: " Not since the lead-up to the financial crisis have bond traders been so divided about the outcome of the next Federal Reserve decision.

With only two days to go, whether Fed policymakers will cut interest rates by a quarter-point or a half point is considered a tossup in US interest-rate markets. Except for the Fed’s emergency rate cut in March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic, that’s the greatest amount of doubt in interest-rate swap markets for any scheduled US central bank decision since 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

Chuck again... OK, that's a long intro to say that the dollar selling stopped yesterday, with a feeling that it has been overdone, since they don't really know for sure which way the Fed Takes go with a rate cut. There was no dollar buying either though... And the BBDXY starts today at the same level it was yesterday morning, 1,222.... But the currencies all look healthier to get out of their respective sick beds... The euro is moving higher in the 1.11 handle, and don't look now, but the Chinese renminbi has been allowed to rally further and trades this morning with a 7.09 handle.... 

Gold was pushed around a bit yesterday by the short paper traders, and was only allowed to gain $4, and Silver was held in check by the short paper traders and closed down ½ of a cent....  Here's Ed Steer from his newsletter this morning: "There should be no doubt in one's mind that the collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe were out and about in both Globex and COMEX trading on Monday...as they weren't about to let that decline in the dollar index be reflected in silver and gold prices. With ultra light volumes in both, for reasons that escape me, they had a very easy time of it." - Ed Steer from www.edsteergoldsilver.com

The price of Oil slipped a bit in the last 24 hours and trades this morning at $69.95.... And the confusion in the bond market right now that was discussed above is playing out in the 10-year's yield, which trades with q 3.67$ yield. This morning...  

There was no movement in anything that I follow in the overnight markets last night, as it appears that the markets have now gone into a holding pattern awaiting the FOIMC decision that won't come until tomorrow afternoon.. I should take that back because Gold is down $4 to start the day today, and Silver is up 2-cents... So, you could say that's no movement or you could make a big deal out of it... I'm just saying... 

This is one of those 2-day meetings for the Fed Heads, I've always contended that these boys and girls at the Eccles Bldg. Don't have anything to discuss that would take them two days to accomplish... So, I've always also contended that instead of discussing stuff they Fed Heads get out the boar games and play games until the time for them to make the decision.... I can hear them shouting, By Joe, you've sunk my battleship!  Or, Oh no, not the sugarplum drops card!  Really if you use your imagination, you can see them playing board games to pass the time before they have to make a decision tomorrow afternoon... 

That's silly, Chuck... Just goes to prove that I'm not a big ogre, that talks about gloom and doom all the time! 

I saw a report from Lola this morning.... For those of you new to class, Lola is aka for Goldman Sachs... The Behemoth Casino Bank that usually issues a call on some asset or something else and voila, it happens... So, what Lola wants, Lola gets.... OK... We've gotten that out of the way... The report from Lola this morning, says that Gold will suffer if the Fed Heads opt for just 25 Basis Points rate cut...

Chuck again... Ahem... But Lola, that doesn't take into consideration what FOMC Chairman, Jerome Powell, says to the press afterwards... If he says, something to the order of: This is the just the start of a rate cut cycle... Then all bets on the size are off, because like I explained yesterday, the FOMC has 3 more meetings before year-end, and it's quite possible that they could cut rates at each of those meetings, which would bring the Fed Funds rate down 100 Basis Points or 1 full percent!  

Please note that I said, "could cut rates at each of the next 3 meeting" not that they "would", because no one knows for sure what the FOMC is going to do now, much less in the next 3 months.... I mean, we all know the FOMC will cut rates tomorrow, but, the size of the cut is in question for the markets.... Me? I've pinned my colors to the mast of a 25 Basis Point cut, and I'm not taking the down... 

OK, I'm finished talking bout the rate cut tomorrow... But Chuck, what will you talk about other than a rate cut? 

Hmmm.... Ok, then I'll just to the Big Finish and put this to bed, if you say so!

But before we go to the Big Finish this morning, I wanted to point something out that just ticked me off to the nth degree... In the New Your Times they said this about our constitution: "“One of the biggest threats to America’s politics might be the country’s founding document.”  Wait, What? ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Well, at least I had to have the Good folks at the Heritage Foundation send me that, because I boycotted the NYT years ago. For saying stuff like that! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has already seen the color of the August Retail Sales report, which showed an increase of just.1%... That was better than expected, by the forecasts and the BHI... Wel'll also see the color of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization in just a bit...  

To recap... The dollar selling stopped yesterday, and Chuck feels like the markets have gone into a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC meeting decision tomorrow afternoon... I think that if Retail Sales for August has printed a HUGE downward move, then that could have moved the Fed Heads to a larger rate cut... But it didn't, so we'll move long now for these are not the droids we're looking for... 

For What it's Worth... This article came to me directly from the Good folks at GATA, and it features one of their golden boys, Brien Lundin, who is the head of the New Orleans Investment Conference, the grandaddy of all investment conferences... 

Here's your snippet: "$2,500 $2,600 Gold.

Changes Everything.

I’ve had to revise my analysis of just a few weeks ago, as the price of gold has once again rocketed to new “big number” levels.

This is about the 35th record high for gold this year — but this time is different. Here’s what most analysts are missing...

The turn has come.

For the last six months, I’ve explained why this was an historic new gold bull market, but also why it was different from any other before it.

That’s because it was being driven by central bank and Chinese buying, which had never happened before in combination, much less as the price was rising.

Another key difference: Western investors were absent. That’s because they couldn’t project how long central banks and investors in China would continue buying.

I’ve also explained in recent months why this was going to change as the Fed’s long-awaited pivot approached. A shift from monetary tightening to easing was something Western investors could understand and project ahead for years.

This would be the catalyst for the next big leg in the metals.

And so it happened. As predicted, gold started taking off in early July as big money in hedge funds, family offices and institutions began adding gold:

Gold has just barreled through $2,600, while the Dollar Index has bounced off of support at 100. If — and when — the DXY falls through 100, I think both trends will accelerate.

This Changes Everything...Even More

When gold broke through $2,500, I told you that “this changes everything.” I noted how even the wildest gold bug plays, the companies with huge projects that were uneconomic at then current gold prices, had suddenly become exceptionally profitable.

These companies were still selling for pennies on the dollar compared with what they’d sell for in a normal gold market, much less one that was breaking records day after day.

But still, the broader market was failing to notice.

Now, however, with gold miners reporting blow-out cash flows and gold breaking through $2,600 with ease...it’s all starting to change."

Chuck again... Yes, a long snippet this morning, but I think Brien's words needed to be heard... So, if you want to hear more from Brien, simply click the link above... 

Market Prices 9/17/2024: American Style: A$ .6761, kiwi .6197, C$ .7458, Euro 1.1135, sterling 1.3213, Swiss $1.1841, European Style: rand 17.6340, krone 10.5890, SEK 10.1691, forint 354.38, zloty 3.8336, koruna 22.5746, RUB 91.35, yen 140.70, sing 1.2934, HKD 7.7918, INR 83.79, China 7.0972, peso 19.31, BRL 5.5043, BBDXY 1,2222.70, Dollar Index 100.75, Oil $69.96, 10-year 3.67%, Silver $30.82, Platinum $982.00, Palladium $1,091.00, Copper $4.27, and Gold... $2,578.40

That's it for today... Well, I spoke too soon yesterday, saying that I didn't have any doctor appointments next week... I reported to my oncologist that I had begun taking the chemo again, and she called to tell me that I needed to get in for lab work... So, that will happen next Monday morning, so no Pfennig on Monday, next week... Cardinals find their bats late in the game last night, that means they'll have lost them again for tonight's game... UGH! The whole world is watching the Fed Heads and what they will do... I find this to be somewhat interesting... Don't you? Maybe not, eh? Well... It's what's on the Agenda for today and tomorrow, so you've got that going for you, eh? Pink Floyd takes us to the finish line today with their mega hit song: Money.... this sone is from the Dark Side of the Moon album which at one time held the record for the longest time in the Top 10 albums sold...  It's still a heavy seller these days! I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!