Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
GBP/USD
Cable is consolidating round pivotal Fibo barrier at 1.3837 in European trading on Friday, following Thursday’s 0.46% advance and awaiting US labor data for fresh signal.
Near-term structure firmed after Thursday’s lift above three-day congestion and close above converged 30/55/200DMA’s, but bulls need clear break above 1.3837 pivot to resume towards targets at 1.3893 / 1.3920 (Fibo 76.4% of 1.3893/1.3920 / 100DMA).
Rising 14-d momentum is about emerge into positive territory and additionally support the action, as MA’s turned to bullish setup and underpin.
US jobs data are likely to define pair’s near-term direction, with upbeat results to boost expectations for Fed tapering and lift dollar that would send sterling lower.
The second scenario (solid jobs data around forecast that would confirm stable recovery in the US labor sector but would signal tapering on hold), is favored among economists and would keep the dollar under pressure.
Finally, August NFP figure well below forecast would signal a substantial slowdown in the labor sector’s recovery and warn of economic stagnation that would hurt risk appetite and prompt traders into safe-haven dollar.
Broken 30/200DMA’s offer initial support at 1.3811, followed by broken Fibo 50% at 1.3792 and converging 20/10DMA’s (1.3770/61) which mark pivotal support, loss of which will be bearish.
Res: 1.3846; 1.3878; 1.3893; 1.3920.
Sup: 1.3811; 1.3792; 1.3761; 1.3731.
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The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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