- GBP/USD edged lower in the European morning but held above 1.2800.
- Sellers could retain control in case the pair fails to reclaim 1.2830.
- Markets await JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI data from the US.
Following Monday's indecisive action, GBP/USD edged slightly lower in the European morning on Monday. In the second half of the day, key macroeconomic data releases from the US could impact the US Dollar's (USD) valuation and drive the pair's action.
Following the disappointing Chinese PMI data, markets seem to be staying away from risk-sensitive assets, helping the USD stay resilient against its rivals. In the European session, the UK's FTSE 100 Index is down 0.4% and US stock index futures are losing between 0.3% and 0.4%.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US is expected to improve marginally to 46.8 in July from 46 in June. If that data comes in above 50 and shows an expansion in the manufacturing sector's business activity, the USD could continue to gather strength. On the other hand, a disappointing print closer to 40 could revive recession fears and weigh on the greenback.
JOLTS Job Openings data for June will also be featured in the US economic docket. Since it will be released at the same with the PMI report, it could be difficult to assess the market reaction. Nevertheless, a reading near 10 million would confirm tight labor conditions and provide a boost to the USD, while a decline toward 9 million could have the opposite effect on the currency.
In case safe-haven flows continue to dominate the financial markets following the US data, the USD is likely to hold its ground, even if the initial reaction suggests otherwise.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart aligns as a key pivot point at 1.2830 for GBP/USD. If the pair confirms that level as resistance, next bearish targets could be set at 1.2800 (psychological level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend) and 1.2760 (July 28 low).
On the flip side, 1.2870 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 50-period SMA) could be seen as first resistance ahead of 1.2900 (psychological level) and 1.2930 (100-period SMA; Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), once GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2830.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains depressed near 1.1350
The US Dollar now grabs momentum and motivates EUR/USD to return to the 1.1350 zone on Thursday, as investors continue to digest the ECB’s decision to lower its policy rates by 25 basis points, as widely estimated. It is worth noting that most markets will be closed on April 18, Good Friday.
GBP/USD maintains the consolidation around 1.3260
The upside momentum in the British pound remains well and sound on Thursday, underpinning the eighth consecutive daily advance in GBP/USD, which now trades in a consolidative fashion near 1.326. Cable’s strong performance comes despite the marked rebound in the US Dollar.
Gold bounces off daily lows, back near $3,320
The prevailing risk-on mood among traders challenges the metal’s recent gains and prompts a modest knee-jerk in its prices on Thursday. After bottoming out near the $3,280 zone per troy ounce, Gold prices are now reclaiming the $3,320 area in spite of the stronger Greenback.
Crypto market cap fell more than 18% in Q1, wiping out $633.5 billion after Trump’s inauguration top
CoinGecko’s Q1 Crypto Industry Report highlights that the total crypto market capitalization fell by 18.6% in the first quarter, wiping out $633.5 billion after topping on January 18, just a couple of days ahead of US President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Future-proofing portfolios: A playbook for tariff and recession risks
It does seem like we will be talking tariffs for a while. And if tariffs stay — in some shape or form — even after negotiations, we’ll likely be talking about recession too. Higher input costs, persistent inflation, and tighter monetary policy are already weighing on global growth.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.