GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling could extend uptrend on a soft US CPI print
- GBP/USD consolidates weekly gains slightly below 1.2700 on Wednesday.
- The technical outlook points to a buildup of bullish momentum.
- The pair needs soft inflation data from the US to continue to stretch higher.
GBP/USD retreated slightly after rising above 1.2700 for the first time in over two weeks on Tuesday but closed the day in positive territory. The pair holds steady slightly below this level early Wednesday as market focus shifts to the US inflation data for March.
Pound Sterling price this week
The table below shows the percentage change of Pound Sterling (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. Pound Sterling was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.26% | -0.49% | -0.29% | -0.82% | 0.11% | -1.13% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.26% | -0.22% | -0.03% | -0.55% | 0.37% | -0.85% | 0.33% | |
| GBP | 0.48% | 0.24% | 0.21% | -0.33% | 0.60% | -0.63% | 0.56% | |
| CAD | 0.29% | 0.03% | -0.20% | -0.52% | 0.40% | -0.83% | 0.37% | |
| AUD | 0.82% | 0.55% | 0.33% | 0.52% | 0.92% | -0.30% | 0.87% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.38% | -0.59% | -0.40% | -0.94% | -1.23% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | 1.11% | 0.85% | 0.63% | 0.82% | 0.30% | 1.22% | 1.18% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | -0.35% | -0.58% | -0.37% | -0.89% | 0.03% | -1.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise 0.3% and 3.7% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively, in March. In case the monthly print comes in below analysts' estimate, investors could start pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut in June and trigger a leg lower in the US Treasury bond yields. In turn, the US Dollar (USD) could face heavy selling pressure and allow GBP/USD to gather bullish momentum.
On the other hand, the USD could outperform its rivals and force GBP/USD to turn south if the monthly core CPI rises at a stronger pace than expected.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets see a nearly 54% probability of the Fed lowering the policy rate in June. Hence, the market reaction to inflation data could deny or confirm a policy pivot in June and ramp up the USD volatility.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart stays above 60, reflecting the bullish bias. More importantly, GBP/USD closed above 1.2660 on Tuesday, where the 20-day, 50-day and the 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) converge.
On the upside, 1.2710 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as first resistance before 1.2750 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.2800 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).
A daily close below 1.2660 could discourage buyers and pave the way for an extended correction. In this scenario, supports could be seen at 1.2620 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) ahead of 1.2590 (200-day SMA).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
