GBP/USD Forecast: Dovish BoE hold could weigh on Pound Sterling
- Pound Sterling edges lower after posting small gains on Wednesday.
- The Bank of England is forecast to maintain bank rate at 5.25%.
- Vote split could trigger a reaction in Pound Sterling.
GBP/USD stays relatively quiet and fluctuates in a tight channel above 1.2700 in the European morning on Thursday. The Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy announcements could trigger the next big action later in the session.
The BoE is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% following the June policy meeting. Because there won't be a post-meeting press conference, investors will scrutinize the policy statement and the vote split.
Economic Indicator
BoE Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP.
Read more.Next release: Thu Jun 20, 2024 11:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 5.25%
Previous: 5.25%
Source: Bank of England
In case more than two policymakers vote in favor of a rate cut, the initial market reaction could cause Pound Sterling to weaken against its rivals. On the other hand, GBP/USD could stay in range if the BoE refrains from making any noticeable changes to its policy statement and the vote split remains the same, with seven officials voting for a hold.
In the second half of the day, the US economic docket will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims, alongside Housing Starts and Building Permits data for May.
If there is a sharp decline in the number of first-time application for unemployment benefits, with a reading at or below 220,000, following the previous week's big increase, the USD could gather strength against its rivals in the second half of the day.
Investors will also continue to pay close attention to comments from central bank officials during the American trading hours.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD trades within a touching distance of the lower limit of the ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays near 50, reflecting a lack of directional momentum.
GBP/USD faces key support at 1.2700 (200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), lower limit of the ascending channel). If the pair drops below this level and starts using it as resistance, 1.2640 (100-day SMA) could be seen as next support before 1.2600 (psychological level, static level).
On the upside, resistances are located at 1.2740 (100-period SMA), 1.2800 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2850 (end-point of the latest uptrend).
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
