The British pound has finally showed some movement on Wednesday after a week of limited movement. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2992, down 0.62% on the day. The pound fell below the symbolic 1.30 level for the first time since August 20.
UK inflation drops more than expected
The UK inflation report for September was projected to hit a milestone and fall below the BoE’s 2% target, but the reading exceeded expectations. CPI fell to 1.7% y/y, down from 2.2% in August and below the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the lowest level since April 2021 and was driven by lower prices for petrol and airfares.
Services inflation, which has been stubbornly high, dropped from 5.6% y/y to 4.9%, its lowest level since May 2022. Monthly, CPI was flat, below 0.3% in August and below the market estimate of 0.1%. Core CPI also decelerated in September and was lower than expected (3.2% y/y and 0.1% m/m). As well, wage growth slowed to 4.9% in the three months to August, down from 5.1% previously.
The Bank of England will be encouraged by the drop in inflation and in wages. The UK economy is groaning under the weight of a cash rate of 5% and the markets are looking at a rate cut in November as a done deal, while a December cut is a strong possibility. Many major central banks have shifted their primary focus from inflation risks to the labor market, and we could see the same with the BoE, now that inflation is back below the BoE’s target.
GBP/USD technical
-
GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.3071, 1.3039 and 1.3004. The next support level is 1.2972.
-
1.3106 and 1.3138 are the next resistance lines.
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities.
Opinions are the authors — not necessarily OANDA’s, its officers or directors. OANDA’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy apply. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds near 1.0900 ahead of key ECB meeting
EUR/USD recovers modestly from multi-month lows and fluctuates at around 1.0900 Wednesday. The cautious market mood ahead of Thursday's ECB policy announcements, however, makes it difficult for the pair to continue to stretch higher.
GBP/USD recovers above 1.3000 after earlier selloff
GBP/USD recovers from the multi-month low it set near 1.2980 and trades above 1.3000. The data from the UK showed that the annual CPI inflation declined to 1.7% in September from 2.2% in August, weighing heavily on the Pound Sterling in the early European session.
Gold closes in on new record high above $2,980
Gold price scales higher for the second straight day on Wednesday – also marking the fourth day of a positive move in the previous five – and climbs toward the all-time-high it set at $2,685 in late September.
Why is the ECB set to cut interest rates again and what does that mean
The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday for the third time this year. This is a significant achievement as it suggests that the ECB, which sets monetary policy in the Eurozone, is accelerating its path towards lower interest rates after an unprecedented increase.
British inflation dips to 1.7% in September
And speaking of inflation and Europe, inflation in Britain not only fell below 2% in September but came in significantly lower than expected (1.7%y-o-y vs 1.9% expected).
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.