GBP/AUD trade idea: How to play the short term trend accelerating higher

Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets.

Market summary

Price

GBPAUD last price was £ 1.79953 .

Trend analysis

In the short term GBPAUD has been accelerating higher. In the long term GBPAUD has been accelerating higher.

Value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the GBPAUD price increased 13 days and decreased 7 days. For every up day, there were 0.54 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.3728% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.2309%

Performance

Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 3.26% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.163% percent.

Trade Idea

With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a long trade idea with an overnight time horizon.

The Trade Idea

Buy £ 571,275 GBP, or 5.71 lots of GBPAUD, take profit at £ 1.8049 level with 25.06% odds for a £ 1,704 GBP gain, stop out at £ 1.7964 with 50.0% odds for a £ 1,000 GBP loss through O/N time horizon

Intraday predictions

GBP/AUD trend analysis

GBPAUD last price was £ 1.79953. The short term trend accelerating higher is stronger than the long term trend accelerating higher. This trade goes long when the last change was higher and accelerating .

GBP/AUD value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the GBPAUD price increased 13 days and decreased 7 days. For every up day, there were 0.54 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.3728% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.2309% Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 3.26% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.163% percent.

GBP/AUD worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for GBPAUD, is £ 1.790358, and the best case scenario overnight is £ 1.808702. levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade.

We are 50% confident that £ 1.7964 could trade and that £ 1.8049 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Expected range

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for GBPAUD, is £ 1.790358, and the best case scenario overnight is £ 1.808702. levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade.

We are 50% confident that £ 1.7964 could trade and that £ 1.8049 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Probability Vs Payout Chart:

This graph contrasts the percentage payout of holding a position vs the probability that the payout occurs. The red and green columns represent the probability of stopping out and taking profit and their associated payouts.

Key Takeaways:

• Price today £ 1.79953.

• Over the past 20 days, the GBPAUD price increased 13 days and decreased 7 Days.

• For every up day, there were 0.54 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 0.3728%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.2309%.

• Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 3.26% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.163% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: 5.9795 pips per day higher.

• Over the last session, the price increased by 130.7 pips.

• Over the last session, the price increased by 0.7263 %.

• Over the last session, the price accelerated by 74.12 pips.