FX weekly — DXY and 14 currency pair levels and targets

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

Currency markets this week are defined as severely oversold USD and massive overbought non USD as EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD. Oversold USD begins with USD/JPY and USD/CHF. USD/CAD range trades this week and travels higher along with USD but lacks any conception to oversold or overbought.

As written to EM targets on these pages since 2015, USD oversold applies to USD/ EM currencies as USD/BRL, USD/DKK, USD/HUF, USD/RON, USD/PHP, USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/ZAR.

EM trades week to week are highly selective as uniformity rarely exists unless an overall big move was seen in markets such as USD Inflation. Note missing from the list are favored trades as USD/CZK and USD/PLN.

Absent Currencies as USD/MXN, USD/ INR, USD/SEK, USD/ NOK, USD/PLN share an equal oversold reading with EUR counterparts as EUR/MXN, EUR/INR, EUR/SEK, EUR/NOK. EUR/PLN. No trade exists for all currencies because all lack a direction.

Most vital is USD trades oversold across the board and most informative is oversold from low range currencies as USD/PHP, USD/SGD and USD/THB. All rarely trade deeply oversold or overbought but rather trade normal dead ranges.

The week

Trades this week are one way as short EUR and long USD. A significant average break is not seen this week as the purpose of the week is to relieve oversold and overbought conditions. GBP/USD for example is safe above 1.2368, AUD/USD 0.6446 while USD/JPY is long from oversold 148.14.

EUR/USD and EUR cross pairs begin the week overbought with the exception of EUR/AUD. EUR/USD big break for lower is located at 1.0867 to place EUR/USD in a 122 pip range from 1.0867 to 1.0745. Above, EUR/USD meets a big line at 1.0976.

The EUR/USD move lower is a correction to relieve current overbought status. EUR/USD longs are safe above 1.0745, 1.0678, 1.0648 and 1.0645. Lower averages will continue rising alongside a higher EUR/USD price.

Best trades for the week are JPY cross pairs beginning with GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY. CHF/JPY also begins the week overbought. Lower for CAD/JPY must break 108.43 and NZD/JPY 88.39.

Next best weekly trades are GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD as overbought exists across the board. GBP/CAD targets easily 1.6968, EUR/CAD 1.4789, AUD/CAD 0.8879 and NZD/CAD 0.8176.

EUR/NZD and AUD/NZD trade overbought while GBP/NZD trades to 2.0670 on a break at 2.0721. AUD/NZD remains a severely problem currency pairs and is not recommended as a trade.

GBP/USD and GBP cross pairs trade fairly neutral to overbought. Best trades are GBP/JPY and GBP/CAD while GBP/USD targets 1.2393 then the resolution of 1.2368.

GBP/USD trades from 1.2551 to 1.2368. GBP/USD's overall bottom is located at 1.2298.

GBP/JPY targets back to 184.00's and EUR/JPY tragets 162.00's and 161.00's.

USD/CHF trades deeply oversold while CAD/CHF is the only CHF cross pair to qualify as oversold.

USD/JPY requires a break at 148.14 to target 146.07, 138.01, 133.26 and 129.72. For the week, USD/JPY targets 148.97.

USD/CAD same old story, up, down and stuck in the middle without price progress. WTI dropped straight down from 82 to 74 over the past 6 weeks and USD/CAD roamed around without purpose. OIL and USD/CAD correlations doesn't work.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.