Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
DXY at week's beginning at low 102.00's opened deeply overbought and decided to travel to a higher degree of overbought at 103.00's. For next week, any price in the 103.00's remains massively overbought and short is the only strategy.
Not only is DXY 103.00's overbought but the crucial 105.00 line approaches. DXY at 105.00's is not expected to break higher as this vital break represents a massive change to currency markets. Then consider the road for DXY to travel. Resistance points are located at every 100 pips from 105.00's to 114.78 at the September highs.
Higher DXY sent USD/EM to richter scale overbought. The same short strategy remains for next week: Short USD/HUF, USD/CZK, USD/DKK, USD/RON, USD/MYR, USD/CNY. Overall, throw a dart, pick a USD currency and short.
USD/CZK from Sunday, Massive overbought USD/CZK from 21.7515 targets 21.5524 then 21.2501. Lows achieved 21.6300's or 1200 pips. USD/DKK achieved 6.8200's target from 6.8600's.
EUR/PLN targets easily 4.5329 and 4.5630 from 4.5190, Target achieved at 4.5300;s.
EUR/USD opened the week at 1.0848. Sunday's range 1.0827 to 1.0956. Next week range 1.0811 to 1.0951 and 1.0951 to 1.1132.
Overbought DXY sent EUR/USD to the brink at vital 1.0811. EUR/USD above 1.0811 trades massive oversold. EUR/USD traded from the range top at 1.0900's to vital 1.0811. Overall EUR/USD traded a range.
GBP/USD opened the week at 1.2446. Last week's range for GBP/USD: 1.2351 to 1.2602, 1.2602 to 1.2752 and 1.2752 to 1.2863. Next week: 1.2351 to 1.2600 and 1.2600 to 1.2750 and 1.2750 to 1.2860. Overall, GBP/USD traded a tiny range this week and higher is the way for next week.
Overbought DXY sent USD/JPY to extraordinary depths of overbought. USD/JPY began trading overbought at 133.00's and 134.00's and now 137.00's. Longs were impossible especially as USD/JPY not only approaches the vital 152.00 line but massive overbought begins at 126.00's and 120.00's and many averages down to 104.00's.
USD/JPY overbought means short, medium and long long term. To understand the overbought 126.00 line, the BOJ line is at 125.00's and this line will drop to 123.00's on a lower USD/JPY.
The BOJ views tops from 200 pips. Last top reported from the BOJ was 140.00's. Today 142.00's. The new BOJ interest rate arrangement disregards the need to intervene yet the BOJ last intervened at USD/JPY 149.00's. USD/JPY now at 137.00's deserves deep caution to the bOJ as the BOJ knows exactly what they are doing. We are not dealing with Stupid when it comes to USD/JPY.
EUR/JPY. What's wrong with EUR/JPY. Here's the usual daily price path: 148.93, 149.02, 149.11, 149.21, 149.40, 149.49, 149.59.
Note 149.11 to 149.21 and 149.49 to 149.59. The numbers reveal automatically, the spreads are far to wide and the price to high. A lower EUR/JPY must see a daily decrease to spread numbers within the price path.
EUR/JPY short for next week at any proce in the severely overbought 149.00's to target the eventual break at 146.22. GBP/JPY short next week at overbought 171.00's to target the break at 167.08 then much lower to longer term targets.
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are 3 outlier currencies holding up the progress to normality. GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY correlations to GBP/USD and EUR/USD ensures great moves and good profit opportunities for USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.
From 28 currencies, 9 are the main focus to trade as follows: USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD. Remainder 19 currencies are severe under performers.
Gold
XAU/USD bottomed at 1600.00's Vs EUR/USD at 0.9500's and traveled 400 points to 2000.00's.
Overall, required is the USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY correlation arrangement to right size to add trades and normality to the remainder 19 currencies.
Trading currencies and other financial instruments carries a degree of loss and possible loss of entire investments. Please managed your own risks, stop loss, and margins requirements.
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GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory at around 1.3150 on Friday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the July PCE inflation data and doesn't allow the pair to stage a rebound heading into the weekend.
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