FX week ahead: EUR/USD driver pairs are EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

EUR/USD ranges this week as written Sunday were: 1.0298 to 1.0175. EUR/USD traded 1.0268 to 1.0122 or a 53 pips drop from 1.0175. Next week aligns as 1.0273 to 1.0150. What changed? 25 pips. We're looking for the close around 1.0150 then long again for next week. Big break for higher last week was 1.0420 and next week 1.0396.

Oversold EUR/CHF at 0.9688 assists EUR/USD longs next week to target 0.9800's. EUR/JPY's big break at 136.95 broke below Monday and traded 200 pips to 134.93. Next week, 136.82 is the deciding factor for EUR/JPY shorts. Overall range is located from 137.15 to 138.16.

Oversold EUR/CAD traded 113 pips higher then dropped 158 pips. The Friday close around 1.3088 would assist again to EUR/CAD longs and further help EUR/USD higher.

EUR/NZD approaches 1.6297. A big drop is required for EUR/NZD longs next week or EUR/NZD is placed last to overall trade rankings. EUR/NZD traded its best day yesterday since last Wednesday at 295 pips higher. Last Wednesday traded 235 pips lower. No progress to EUR/NZD except trading normal ranges.

EUR/AUD traded 322 pips this week and traveled straight up from Sunday at 1.4392. The move was required to alleviate severe overbought to AUD/EUR. AUD/USD is now fairly perfect to AUD/EUR alignment. Overall, EUR/AUD back to 1.4500's and 1.4400's for next week.

EUR/USD driver pairs next week are EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD.

GBP/USD range Sunday was located from 1.2178 to 1.2029. GBP/USD 1.2178 held at 1.2141 highs and lows at 1.2029 broke below to 1.1994 or 35 pips. GBP/USD was forced lower by overbought AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Next week 1.2149 to 1.1999 and extremely short range. Long for next week to match EUR/USD longs.

GBP/JPY 161.99 traded to 159.00's and 163.00's in a fairly balanced trade week. Shorts next week with focus on 161.82. GBP/JPY larger range remains 148.00's to 168.00's.

GBP/CAD traded 159 pips higher this week. A close Friday at 1.5400's then long again for next week.

GBP/NZD traded 500 pips this week from 1.8700's to 1.9200's. Higher or lower for GBP/NZD at 1.9277. A significant move lower is required for longs next week.

As written Sunday: focus is on deeply oversold wide range currency pairs: GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD. The primary concentration to oversold and trades is found in GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD.

GBP/AUD as well failed to disappoint as GBP/AUD traded 383 pips higher this week and straight up from Sunday. Next week's range is located from 1.7378 to 1.7246.

AUD/USD now trades oversold and long for next week with focus on 0.7024. AUD/CAD broke 0.9009 and traded 70 ish pips to 0.8951. Higher must break above 0.9020. AUD/NZD broke below 1.1012 and traded 22 pips lower to 1.0990.

AUD/USD longs are assisted next week by AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD.

NZD/USD longs for next week matches AUD. NZD/USD trades oversold from 0.6260's. NZD/CAD traded 100 pips lower from the break Tuesday at 0.8185.

NZD/USD Longs are assisted by NZD/CHF and NZD/CAD as all are in compliance to longs.

USD/JPY range this week 132.65 to 135.71 traded 132.58 to 135.49. Shorts for next week and higher prices assists to short profits.

JPY cross pairs last weeks traded short ranges and this is positive as ranges are normalizing after months of non normal. This means moves are better predictable, better trades and normal ranges.

USD/CAD despite 200 pips traded this week remains a problem currency. The 5 year average approaches at 1.2973. USD/CAD 200 pips is matched by DXY 145 traded pips this week.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

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