Futures hint at positive start

The new week starts on relief that the US will exempt electronics – most of which are made in China – from headline tariffs. Futures are hinting at strong gains across the US and European indices. Hon Hai – a major Apple supplier jump opened in Asia but is giving back gains since then as Donald Trump said Sunday that the tech sector won’t be exempt from tariffs, they will be in a different tariff bucket. Prepare for another week of hectic headlines, uncertainty and high volatility – and thinning holiday volumes into the Easter break won’t help in terms of volatility.

Earnings

Friday’s bank earnings were encouraging. JPM, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo announced earnings exceeding estimates, but their CEOs sounded very much concerned about the tariff uncertainty, with Jamie Dimon warning of "considerable turbulence" due to tariffs, inflation, and high deficits, suggesting a recession is increasingly likely. The stock still jumped 4% on Friday but Wells Fargo slid after earnings.

In bonds, the selloff across US treasuries accelerated on Friday despite a better appetite for stocks. The US 10-year yield hit the 4.60% mark. Many doubt if China has a role in last week’s rapid selloff in US treasuries of last week as the Chinese are one of the biggest holders of US debt and they could sell their holdings as part of retaliation. But Japan – another major holder of US debt – said earlier this week that they wouldn’t dump their US treasury holdings. In all cases, a Federal Reserve (Fed) official soothed nerves reminding that the Fed could intervene if necessary. As such, the 10-year yield looks more stable this morning. Gold extends gains above the $3220 on rising bets that the US treasuries are losing their safe haven status thanks to the US hectic and harmful policies. The US dollar remains under a decent selling pressure. The euro, yen and franc amass flows. The EURUSD approached the 1.15 mark last Friday and the euro will likely remain in demand despite a broadly expected rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) this Thursday. If nothing, the strong euro and lower energy prices give the ECB a comfortable maneuver margin to ease financial conditions. The Japanese yen extends gains against a broadly smashed US dollar. The USDJPY tested the 142 last week, it’s just a matter of time before the pair tests the 140 psychological level. The USDCHF shortly slipped below the 0.81 mark on Friday under the horrified eyes of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) that doesn’t want the franc to strengthen so much when Swiss companies are subject to a 10% rise of their products in the US market! The consensus among analysts is that the SNB wouldn’t go negative on rates this year. But the strong franc tilts the balance in favour of that option as the rising trade uncertainties will unlikely let the franc take a breather anytime soon.

This week

Besides the ECB meeting, investors will have their hands full with a wave of key data and earnings: more results from US big banks, inflation figures from Europe, the UK and Canada, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, and earnings from TSMC and Netflix. US retail sales and business inventories will also be in focus — all unfolding under the shadow of escalating trade tensions.

Every data point will be dissected through the lens of the growing trade war. While earnings will move stocks, it's the forecasts that truly matter now. A potential jump in US retail sales may not signal confidence, but rather reflect consumers front-loading purchases before tariffs bite.