Fueled by tariff threats, Copper prices hit all-time high

Key points

• The price of copper has jumped 14% year-to-date.

• Commodity experts suggest it could go even higher.

• Here ate some leading copper stocks and ETFs.

There are several stocks and ETFs that focus on copper investments.

Copper prices have been skyrocketing this year, fueled in part by the threats of higher tariffs. And with new tariffs potentially on the horizon, experts suggest it could drive copper prices even higher.

The price of copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to around $9,880 per tonne on Tuesday, up 14% year-to-date. Further, copper futures on the Comex commodity exchange hit an all-time high of $5.35 per ounce on Tuesday.

Experts at the Financial Times’ Commodities Summit in Lausanne said on Tuesday that it could move significantly higher.

“I think we’ll see [prices] higher than $12,000,” Kostas Bintas, global head of metals and minerals at Mercuria, told the Financial Times.

Goldman Sachs recently issued a forecast calling for LME copper prices to reach $10,700 in 12 months.

The surge is related in large part to surging U.S. demand, as imports have risen before any tariffs on copper might take effect.

On February 25, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order saying the U.S. “faces significant vulnerabilities in the copper supply chain, with increasing reliance on foreign sources for mined, smelted, and refined copper.”

The order directed the Commerce Secretary to investigate the effects of copper imports on national security and recommend any actions to mitigate threats, “including potential tariffs, export controls, or incentives to increase domestic production.”

Bintas told the FT that massive US imports of copper have reshaped the market, adding that about 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes of copper are headed to the U.S.

Why prices are rising

Graeme Train, head of metals and minerals analysis at Trafigura, told the FT that demand should remain high since there isn’t a quick solution to boosting domestic supplies. But its not just the threat of tariffs that sending prices higher, said John Murillo, chief dealing officer of B2Broker, a global fintech solutions provider for financial institutions.

“I think copper prices reaching record highs is not a single-factor phenomenon, but apparently a combination of factors, with Trump’s proposed tariffs, to be broadly introduced as soon as April 2, being a significant contributor,” Murillo said. “The possibility of a 25% tariff on all copper imports has created uncertainty in the market, leading to a rush by traders to buy and store copper in the U.S. ahead of the imposition of these tariffs.”

This strategic buying has tightened global copper supplies, thus ratcheting up demand, and pushing prices higher, Murillo explained. With tariffs on copper potentially coming as early as April 2, or within weeks if not then, it could lead to even higher prices.

“This accelerated timeline has heightened market tensions and beefed up speculative buying, further fueling the price increase,” Murillo said. “The tariff threats have already resulted in a shift in global supply chains. U.S. importers of physical copper are exploring alternative sources of red metal, particularly from South America, to mitigate the impact of the tariffs. This shift is adding complexity to the global copper market and contributing to the record-high prices.”

But beyond tariffs, there is higher industrial demand for copper, said Murillo. The demand, in part, is driven by the rapid growth of data centers and electric vehicles.

“This is why this speculative buying in the market, amplified by geopolitical events and economic indicators, has created a unique synergy pushing prices to new heights,” Murillo said.

Copper stocks and ETFs

Some stocks could gain from the rising copper prices are Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), Teck Resources (NYSE:TECK) and BHP Group (NYSE:BHP). Al three of these companies are leading producers of copper, as well as other metals.

Teck has the most upside, according to analysts, with a median price target of about $51 per share, which would be 27% higher than its current price of $40 per share. Freeport-McMoRan has a median price target of $49.50, which suggests 20% upside from its $41.00 per share price. BHP has a $52.50 median price target, which would be up 6% from its current $49 per share price.

There are also a few ETFs that focus on copper investments, including the iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (NASDAQ:ICOP), which is up about 11% YTD. Another is the United States Copper Index Fund (NYSEARCA:CPER), which has risen about 30% YTD.