Freight costs spike, putting pressure on producer prices

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Czechia won the Ice Hockey World Championship and it will continue to celebrate it today.
Unemployment rate will be published today at 10 AM CET in Poland and 10.30 AM CET in Slovenia.
On Tuesday, Croatia will release 1Q24 GDP and positive surprise is likely.

Economic developments

Last week, we discussed the development of producer prices in the whole industry, as well as energy. Today, we look at the World Container Index that reports the actual spot container freight rates for major East-West trade routes. Therefore, it can be used as a signal for the future development of producer prices that seems to have been bottoming out in recent months. The value of the World Container Index is at the highest level in one year and a half (that is the highest since September 2022), suggesting possible inflation pressure in the second half of 2024 driven by an increase in shipping costs.

Market movements

As for FX market development over last week the Czech koruna was relatively stable. The EURHUF moved down to 385 and the EURPLN to 4.26. This week, there are no local releases that could impact the FX market. We expect global factors to drive market development, especially as there are inflation releases scheduled on the core markets. As for yield development, we have seen long-term yields rising in most CEE countries following the yield increase on the core markets. This week, flash estimates of May’s inflation (in the Eurozone and in the region) may move the markets. In Poland, the MPC member Dabrowski said on Friday, that only in 2025 there may be conditions to lower interest rates. May’s inflation in Poland is expected to increase.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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