Forecasting the upcoming week: Focus shifts to hard data and Fedspeak

The Greenback extended its bearish streak for another week, trading near three-year lows as concerns over the US economy persisted, the Federal Reserve maintained its cautious stance, and tariff tensions remained elevated.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) clinched its fifth consecutive week of losses, struggling once again to gather some convincing upside traction and remaining near three-year lows well south of the psychological 100.00 support. The Conference Board’s Leading Index is due on April 21, followed by the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the API’s report on US crude oil inventories on April 22. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications comes on April 23, seconded by the advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, New Home Sales, the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles, and the Fed’s Beige Book. On April 24, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims are expected, along ith the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Durable Goods Orders, and Existing Home Sales. The final print of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released on April 25.

EUR/USD rose for the fourth week in a row, managing to keep business in the upper end of the range around the 1.1400 neighbourhood. A sustained breakout of this level, however, remains elusive for the time being. The preliminary Consumer Confidence gauge by the European Commission is due on April 22, followed by the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The flash HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Germany and the Euroland are expected on April 23, along with the EMU’s Balance of Trade results and Construction Output. Germany’s IFO Business Climate will come on April 24, while the ECB will publish is survey of Consumer Inflation Expectations on April 25.

GBP/USD built on the previous week’s gains and advanced to just pips away from the key 1.3300 the figure for the first time since late September. The Public Sector Net Borrowing figures are due on April 23 along the advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs. The CBI Business Optimism Index and Industrial Trend Orders will come on April 24, prior to the GfK Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales, both closing the UK calendar on April 25.

USD/JPY extended its downward move for a third consecutive week, slipping toward the 142.00 region and marking monthly losses each month since the start of the year. The preliminary Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be published on April 23, while the weekly readings of Foreign Bond Investment are due on April 24. The Tokyo Inflation Rate comes on April 25, followed by the final data of the Coincident Index and the Leading Economic Index.

AUD/USD maintained its upward momentum, shifting focus back to yearly highs above the 0.6400 barrier. The pair advanced for a second straight week, extending its rebound from the 0.5900 support zone seen earlier in the month. The advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be the only release of note in Oz on April 23.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

- The Fed’s Goolsbee speaks on April 21.

- The Fed’s Jefferson, Harker, and Kashkari will speak on April 22, along with the ECB’s Knot, De Guindos, and Lagarde.

- The BoE’s Pill, Bailey and Breeden are due to speak on April 23, seconded by the Fed’s Kugler, Goolsbee and Waller and the ECB’s Lane and Cipollone.

- The Fed’s Hammack and Kashkari speak on April 24, followed by the BoE’s Lombardelli, and the ECB’s Nagel, Lane, Montagner, and Donnery.

- The ECB’s Buch and the BoE’s Greene will speak on April 25.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

- The PBoC will meet on April 21 (1Y LPR 3.1% act, 3.1% exp – 5Y LPR 3.6% act, 3.6% exp).

- The BI meets on April 23 (5.75% act, 5.75% exp).