Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
- Current accounts’ deficits across the region. In September, Czechia, Poland and Serbia posted negative current account balances while in Romania year-to-date number was also negative.
- Flash 3Q24 GDP growth in Romania landed at 0% q/q and 1.1% y/y.
- In Slovakia flash 3Q24 GDP is scheduled at 9 AM CET.
- At 10 AM CET, Poland will publish 3Q24 GDP data, while Slovenia is due 10.30 AM CET.
Economic developments
We will summarize incoming flash estimates of 3Q24 on Friday, while today we focus on inflation numbers. In October, headline inflation increased in all the CEE countries but Slovenia. The energy and food prices are behind such development. In some of the countries such as Czechia or Poland, headline inflation footprints were expected to rise toward the end of 2024. In other such as Slovakia, where we have seen HICP flash estimate but we expect local release to confirm the upward trend, the increase in food prices was particularly high, driving the October’s inflation up and actually, unexpectedly high. In Romania, inflation surprised to the upside as well but it is at the lowest levels in three years. While in Slovakia local factor may play a role, in general, the development of World Food Price Index suggest that food prices are likely to increase and contribute positively to the headline inflation numbers in the short-term. The World Food Price Index rose to 127.4 in October that is the highest in year and a half.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays near 1.0400 in thin holiday trading
EUR/USD trades with mild losses near 1.0400 on Tuesday. The expectation that the US Federal Reserve will deliver fewer rate cuts in 2025 provides some support for the US Dollar. Trading volumes are likely to remain low heading into the Christmas break.
GBP/USD struggles to find direction, holds steady near 1.2550
GBP/USD consolidates in a range at around 1.2550 on Tuesday after closing in negative territory on Monday. The US Dollar preserves its strength and makes it difficult for the pair to gain traction as trading conditions thin out on Christmas Eve.
Gold holds above $2,600, bulls non-committed on hawkish Fed outlook
Gold trades in a narrow channel above $2,600 on Tuesday, albeit lacking strong follow-through buying. Geopolitical tensions and trade war fears lend support to the safe-haven XAU/USD, while the Fed’s hawkish shift acts as a tailwind for the USD and caps the precious metal.
IRS says crypto staking should be taxed in response to lawsuit
In a filing on Monday, the US International Revenue Service stated that the rewards gotten from staking cryptocurrencies should be taxed, responding to a lawsuit from couple Joshua and Jessica Jarrett.
2025 outlook: What is next for developed economies and currencies?
As the door closes in 2024, and while the year feels like it has passed in the blink of an eye, a lot has happened. If I had to summarise it all in four words, it would be: ‘a year of surprises’.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.