Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
- Current accounts’ deficits across the region. In September, Czechia, Poland and Serbia posted negative current account balances while in Romania year-to-date number was also negative.
- Flash 3Q24 GDP growth in Romania landed at 0% q/q and 1.1% y/y.
- In Slovakia flash 3Q24 GDP is scheduled at 9 AM CET.
- At 10 AM CET, Poland will publish 3Q24 GDP data, while Slovenia is due 10.30 AM CET.
Economic developments
We will summarize incoming flash estimates of 3Q24 on Friday, while today we focus on inflation numbers. In October, headline inflation increased in all the CEE countries but Slovenia. The energy and food prices are behind such development. In some of the countries such as Czechia or Poland, headline inflation footprints were expected to rise toward the end of 2024. In other such as Slovakia, where we have seen HICP flash estimate but we expect local release to confirm the upward trend, the increase in food prices was particularly high, driving the October’s inflation up and actually, unexpectedly high. In Romania, inflation surprised to the upside as well but it is at the lowest levels in three years. While in Slovakia local factor may play a role, in general, the development of World Food Price Index suggest that food prices are likely to increase and contribute positively to the headline inflation numbers in the short-term. The World Food Price Index rose to 127.4 in October that is the highest in year and a half.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD: Further declines remain well in store
EUR/USD broke below the key 1.0500 support to clock a new 2024 low, always on the back of the intense strength in the Greenback, which sent the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fresh yearly peaks past 107.00 ahead of key US data releases on Friday.
GBP/USD reclaims the 1.2700 barrier and above
In line with the rest of its risk-related peers, GBP/USD leaves behind the initial drop to multi-month lows near 1.2630 and attempts a move beyond 1.2700 the figure amidst renewed weakness in the Greenback.
Gold trims early losses hovers around $2,575
The loss of momentum in the US Dollar and the retracement in US yields across the curve allow Gold prices to pick up some upside traction and revisit the $2,570 zone per ounce troy, trimming part of their early losses.
Dogecoin Price Prediction: Could DOGE turn deflationary after 100% rise? Elon Musk weighs in
Dogecoin (DOGE) is down 4% on Thursday after key figures, including Elon Musk, shared views on its token design and what a deflationary path could mean for its appeal as a currency.
Trump vs CPI
US CPI for October was exactly in line with expectations. The headline rate of CPI rose to 2.6% YoY from 2.4% YoY in September. The core rate remained steady at 3.3%. The detail of the report shows that the shelter index rose by 0.4% on the month, which accounted for 50% of the increase in all items on a monthly basis.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.