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French CPI declines, while Chinese stocks weaken.
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Alphabet and Microsoft set for losses at the open.
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FOMC meeting to shed light on March cut chances.
European markets are treading water this morning, despite an encouraging French PMI survey that lifted hopes of a decline for tomorrows eurozone figure. Nonetheless, yesterday’s earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet look set to drag US indices lower at the open today, with both set for chunky declines despite relatively strong earnings. The Chinese fallout from the Evergrande announcement continues, with the Hang Seng and Shanghai composite both losing ground overnight. That came despite improved manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys out of China, while we also saw two cities ease their home buying restrictions in a big to alleviate some of the real estate pressure expected in the wake of the Evergrande liquidation.
While yesterday brought the first batch of big tech earnings, today sees markets bear the brunt of a somewhat underwhelmed response as Microsoft (-1.5%) and Alphabet (-5%) gear up for losses at the open. Once again, we are seeing lofty expectations impact market sentiment even in the case of improved earnings, with both Microsoft and Alphabet losing ground despite beating across earnings and revenues. Clearly markets have priced in substantial gains from AI that are yet to materialise, and thus while we are seeing steady inroads made over recent quarters, investors are yet to see the huge boom that they might have expected coming into these reports. Nonetheless, AI is here to stay, and whilst it may be a slow and steady adoption process, the future likely puts AI at the centre of every multinational business going forward.
Markets are eagerly anticipated today's meeting from the Federal Reserve with traders looking for signs over whether a March rate cut is plausible. With inflation elevated and the US economy growing at a healthy clip, the justification for a cut in just over seven weeks is questionable as things stand. Nonetheless, markets are currently pricing a 46% chance of a March cut, bringing potential volatility once Powell & co guide markets on exactly when we should expect to see the pivot occur.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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