Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
This week in CEE
Several CEE countries will publish flash estimates for March inflation. Poland and Slovenia will already publish March’s inflation headline on Monday, followed by Croatia and Slovakia (within HICP Eurozone releases) on Tuesday. Czechia will be the last country to release the inflation rate for March. Further, Poland will hold a rate-setting meeting. We expect stability of rates. Other than that, Croatia, Serbia and Hungary will publish the performance of the industry sector in February. In addition, Serbia will release retail sales growth in February. Trade data for February will be published in Serbia, Hungary and Slovenia, and producer prices in Hungary and Romania. Finally, Serbia and Slovenia have scheduled rating assessments by S&P and Fitch, respectively. In Slovenia we do not expect any change, while in Serbia the outlook may be changed to negative from stable.
This week in CEE
Several CEE countries will publish flash estimates for March inflation. Poland and Slovenia will already publish March’s inflation headline on Monday, followed by Croatia and Slovakia (within HICP Eurozone releases) on Tuesday. Czechia will be the last country to release the inflation rate for March. Further, Poland will hold a rate-setting meeting. We expect stability of rates. Other than that, Croatia, Serbia and Hungary will publish the performance of the industry sector in February. In addition, Serbia will release retail sales growth in February. Trade data for February will be published in Serbia, Hungary and Slovenia, and producer prices in Hungary and Romania. Finally, Serbia and Slovenia have scheduled rating assessments by S&P and Fitch, respectively. In Slovenia we do not expect any change, while in Serbia the outlook may be changed to negative from stable.
FX market developments
Throughout the week, we have seen divergence on the regional FX market. While the Czech koruna and Polish zloty strengthened against the euro, the Hungarian forint weakened by more than 1%. We see local factors behind such development, in that a higher EURHUF level is a response to changes in regulations of minimum holdings for domestic funds as well as the hawkish tone of the central bank after the interest rate decision. The Hungarian central bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.5%, suggesting that a stability of rates scenario throughout 2025 is most likely. The Czech central bank also decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 3.75% amid elevated inflation risks. This week, the Polish central bank is holding a rate-setting meeting and we expect the policy rate to remain stable at 5.75%. Currently, Government Glapinski sees higher inflation numbers as a key reason to hold off on monetary easing.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD advances to multi-day highs around 1.0860
EUR/USD is surging ahead, rapidly recovering and approaching multi-day highs around 1.0860. This boost comes on the heels of news that the EU might roll out countermeasures to soften the blow of Trump’s impending reciprocal tariffs.
GBP/USD flirts with tops near 1.2970 ahead of Trump's tariffs
GBP/USD is accelerating, challenging weekly highs near 1.2970 as a renewed, sharp drop in the Greenback sets the stage for the US 'reciprocal tariffs' announcement on "Liberation Day" at 20:00 GMT.
Gold looks consolidative near $3,120 ahead of Trump's “Liberation Day”
Gold is regaining momentum, climbing above $3,120 after a slight pullback from Tuesday’s near-record high of $3,150. Retreating US yields are bolstering XAU/USD, ahead of President Trump's official announcement of the reciprocal tariff measures later this Wednesday.
Trump Tariffs: Everything you need to know on “Liberation Day” Premium
The global trading system is about to be upended, but to what extent? Will markets have clarity or is it merely another phase in ongoing trade wars? Some answers are due on Wednesday at 20:00 GMT. Here is preview of the five critical things to watch.
Is the US economy headed for a recession?
Leading economists say a recession is more likely than originally expected. With new tariffs set to be launched on April 2, investors and economists are growing more concerned about an economic slowdown or recession.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.