We are paying particularly close attention to the weekly jobless claims indicator, and it continues to bounce around near all time lows relative to the size of the US labour force. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised higher last week on stronger consumer spending, though this is admittedly a lagging data point.
The key test comes this Friday as the August labour report is due to come out. Markets are pricing in about a one-third chance of a 50bp cut from the Fed at its September meeting (18/09), but we think this is too much and expect that a solid NFP print will confirm our view.
Another sizable downside surprise, however, could raise expectations for a bumper cut, and would almost certainly trigger fresh downside in the US currency.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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EUR/USD holds steady slightly above 1.1050
EUR/USD fluctuates in a narrow range slightly above 1.1050 on the first trading day of September. The US Dollar struggles to build on the previous week's gains as trading conditions remain thin, with US markets remaining closed on Labor Day.
GBP/USD trades in tight channel below 1.3150
GBP/USD moves sideways below 1.3150 in the second half of the day on Monday. Financial markets in the US remain closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday, not allowing the pair to make a decisive move in either direction.
Gold fluctuates at around $2,500 to start the week
Gold struggles to find direction on Monday as it continues to move up and down at around $2,500. Later in the week, key macroeconomic data releases from the US, including August PMI figures and the jobs report, could trigger the next big action in XAU/USD.
Tron price is set for a decline as technical indicators show bearish momentum
Tron (TRX) retested its resistance barrier and declined 6.1% last week. In the Asian session on Monday, it trades at $0.1557. Tron's price action suggests a decline ahead, as the bearish divergence in technical indicators shows.
Week ahead: US labour data and the BoC rate announcement in focus
With US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium confirming that it is time to begin easing policy as well as underlining the importance of the jobs market, this week’s jobs data may help determine how the Fed approaches its easing cycle.
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