Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
The current arrangement to the 200 pip range forecast for this week is actually EUR/USD 67 pips, NZD/USD 70, GBP/USD 91 and AUD/USD 102. For the past 7 weeks, EUR/USD and NZD/USD traded +100 pip ranges in 4 of 7 weeks. GBP/USD and AUD/USD were big range trade winners as GBP traded 150 and 200 pip ranges in 6 of the past 7 weeks. AUD/USD followed GBP/USD perfectly by +100 pip ranges in 6 of the past 7 weeks.
USD/JPY traded +150 pip weeks in 6 of the past 9 weeks and above 300 pips in 4 of the past 9. USD/JPY traded 835 pips 4 weeks ago during the BOJ interest rate rise. Since 835, USD/JPY traded 141 pips, 319 and 321 in each of the past 3 weeks.
Currency market prices remain trading in proximity to 5 year averages. The 2 most vital currencies to 5 year averages are EUR/USD at 1.1121 and GBP/USD at 1.2803. Neither averages moved since January. The dictator averages to allowable weekly ranges are bottom most averages.
EUR/USD current lineup = 1.0808, 1.0870, 1.1032, 1.1121, 1.1226, 1.1469. The bottom average rise since 1.0700;s and 1.0600s allowed for wider range trade weeks while 1.0808 compressed the range to 67 pips in the current week.
The 100 and 200 pip weekly ranges appears as more permanent long into the future. The 100 and 200 pip range weeks is actually Bretton Woods 1% movements. EUR/USD at + and minus 1% factors to 1.0738 to 1.0955.
If the Fed cuts once by 25 points then EUR/USD ranges from 1.0647 to 1.1048. Only a Fed Interest rate move contains the power to significantly move currency prices.
A break of the 5 year average at 1.1121 means another 100 and 200 pip range. Same concept under different numbers.
Week
EUR/USD trades 1.0870, 1.0886 and 1.0949 Vs 1.0836, 1.0808 then 1.0700's.
GBP/USD ranges from 1.2607, 1.2626, 1.2778, 1.2803, 1.3111, 1.3493.
The main focus to our trades are USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs and wide rangers as GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD. The best for profit trades are GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD then EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD.
GBP/NZD higher must clear 2.0804 and 1.7838 for EUR/NZD. Oversold EUR/NZD leads EUR/NZD next week.
EUR/AUD trades just below vital 1.6394. Shorts apply next week to GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD.
Trading currencies and other financial instruments carries a degree of loss and possible loss of entire investments. Please managed your own risks, stop loss, and margins requirements.
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EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, looks to post weekly losses
EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow range below 1.1100 and remains on track to end the week in negative territory. Earlier in the day, monthly PCE inflation data from the US came in line with the market expectation, failing to trigger a reaction.
GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold, trades near 1.3150
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory at around 1.3150 on Friday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the July PCE inflation data and doesn't allow the pair to stage a rebound heading into the weekend.
Gold retreats toward $2,500 ahead of the weekend
Gold stays under modest bearish pressure and declines toward $2,500 in the American session on Friday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges higher toward 3.9% after US PCE inflation data, causing XAU/USD to stretch lower.
Week ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation
Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts. The weaker than expected July numbers triggered market turbulence, instilling fears about a potential recession in the US.
Easing Eurozone inflation to back an ECB rate cut in September Premium
Eurostat will publish the preliminary estimate of the August Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices on Friday, and the anticipated outcome will back up the case for another European Central Bank interest rate cut when policymakers meet in September.
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