The year 2024 was marked by further progress in disinflation in both the United States and the Eurozone, sufficient to pave the way for rate cuts. The Fed and the ECB did not quite follow the same timetable and tempo, but by the end of the year, the cumulative size of their rate cuts is the same: 100 basis points. At least, if the Fed makes the expected final 25 basis points cut at the December FOMC meeting.
However, 2025 may be quite different from 2024, partly because of the potential impact of Donald Trump's economic platform What will be decided and in what timing remains uncertain. But in our new forecasts, we assumed almost full implementation over time.
In this context, we expect, on the one hand, a start to convergence of growth rates between the US and the Eurozone, and, on the other hand, divergent inflation trajectories and therefore a decoupling of monetary policies.
In terms of growth, the reduction of the gap between the US and the Eurozone would be achieved primarily through the anticipated decline in US growth.
Admittedly, this latter would initially continue to be strong, supported by post-election optimism over about the first half of 2025, before starting to suffer from the inflationary effects of ‘Trumponomics’ and the resulting more restrictive monetary policy.
More precisely, we now expect the Fed to maintain a prolonged monetary status quo throughout 2025. The Fed was already not in a hurry to deliver more rate cuts, but we now believe that it will have to stop them in 2025, as it cannot look through a tariff-driven, even if temporary, pick-up in inflation.
The Fed is indeed likely to be more sensitive to the risk of a de-anchoring of inflation expectations rather than to downside risks to growth.
On the Eurozone side, the expected strengthening of growth should remain limited and constrained by an increased number of headwinds, partly neutralising the existing tailwinds. But on the other hand, the inflation outlook remains positive. The return to the 2% inflation target is expected to be secured in 2025, as the disinflationary pressures should outweigh the inflationary ones.
All of this should allow the ECB to continue its gradual pace of rate cuts until neutrality in the middle of next year.
What message does this anticipated decoupling between the Fed and the ECB monetary policy send?
Of course, it is partly the result of a better economic situation in the United States, but it is also, and above all, the result of lower and controlled inflation in the Eurozone, a significant advantage.
BNP Paribas is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of its designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. The information and opinions contained in this report have been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy any securities or other investment. Information and opinions contained in the report are published for the assistance of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient, they are subject to change without notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. No BNP Paribas Group Company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. All estimates and opinions included in this report constitute our judgements as of the date of this report. BNP Paribas and their affiliates ("collectively "BNP Paribas") may make a market in, or may, as principal or agent, buy or sell securities of the issuers mentioned in this report or derivatives thereon. BNP Paribas may have a financial interest in the issuers mentioned in this report, including a long or short position in their securities, and or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. BNP Paribas, including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer, director or in an advisory capacity for any issuer mentioned in this report. BNP Paribas may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have performed investment banking, underwriting or other services (including acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months for any issuer referred to in this report. BNP Paribas, may to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or the research or analysis on which it was based, before its publication. BNP Paribas may receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from an issuer mentioned in this report. Any issuer mentioned in this report may have been provided with sections of this report prior to its publication in order to verify its factual accuracy. This report was produced by a BNP Paribas Group Company. This report is for the use of intended recipients and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or delivered or transmitted to any other person without the prior written consent of BNP Paribas. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. Analyst Certification Each analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report, and (ii) no part of the analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed herein. United States: This report is being distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp., or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas that is not registered as a US broker-dealer, to US major institutional investors only. BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the National Association of Securities Dealers, Inc. BNP Paribas Securities Corp. accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-US affiliate only when distributed to US persons by BNP Paribas Securities Corp. United Kingdom: This report has been approved for publication in the United Kingdom by BNP Paribas London Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas London Branch is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") for the conduct of its designated investment business in the United Kingdom and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. This report is prepared for professional investors and is not intended for Private Customers in the United Kingdom as defined in FSA rules and should not be passed on to any such persons. Japan: This report is being distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas not registered as a financial instruments firm in Japan, to certain financial institutions permitted by regulation. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch, a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a financial instruments firm registered according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan and a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association. BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-Japan affiliate only when distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo Branch. Hong Kong: This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch is regulated as a Licensed Bank by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and is deemed as a Registered Institution by the Securities and Futures Commission for the conduct of Advising on Securities [Regulated Activity Type 4] under the Securities and Futures Ordinance Transitional Arrangements. Singapore: This report is being distributed in Singapore by BNP Paribas Singapore Branch, a branch of BNP Paribas whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas Singapore is a licensed bank regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore is exempted from holding the required licenses to conduct regulated activities and provide financial advisory services under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisors Act. © BNP Paribas (2011). All rights reserved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
GBP/USD struggles around 1.2600 after BoE rate decision
GBP/USD retreated from its daily peak and battles around 1.2600 following the Bank of England monetary policy decision. The BoE kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75% as expected, but the accompanying statement leaned to dovish. Three out of nine MPC members opted for a cut.
EUR/USD retakes 1.0400 amid the post-Fed recovery
EUR/USD is recovering ground to near 1.0400 in the European session on Thursday. The pair corrects higher, reversing the hawkish Fed rate cut-led losses. Meanwhile, the US Dollar takes a breather ahead of US data releases.
Gold price recovers from one-month low, retains modest gains above $2,600
Gold price attracts some haven flows in the wake of the post-FOMC sell-off in the equity markets. The Fed’s hawkish outlook lifts US bond yields and provides near-term support to XAU/USD. Market players await US GDP and employment-related data.
Aave Price Forecast: Poised for double-digit correction as holders book profit
Aave (AAVE) price hovers around $343 on Thursday after correcting more than 6% this week. The recent downturn has led to $5.13 million in total liquidations, 84% of which were from long positions.
Fed-ECB: 2025, the great decoupling?
The year 2024 was marked by further progress in disinflation in both the United States and the Eurozone, sufficient to pave the way for rate cuts. The Fed and the ECB did not quite follow the same timetable and tempo, but by the end of the year, the cumulative size of their rate cuts is the same: 100 basis points.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.