Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
On the radar
-
In Croatia, the 3Q23 GDP delivered positive surprise as economy expanded by 2.8% y/y.
-
Retail sales contracted by 15.6% y/y in Slovenia in October.
-
Today there are no releases scheduled in the region.
Economic developments
Today, we look at the export expectations for the months ahead in the region. In the last quarter of 2023, we have seen an improvement in the export expectations compared to the previous quarter in all countries but Romania. Compared to the situation in 2022, however, an improvement was noticed in Croatia, Poland and Serbia. In Czechia, Hungary or Slovakia that belong to most open and export-oriented economies in the region, export expectations for months ahead remain much lower in 2023 compared to the previous year. Such development translates into higher uncertainty about the performance of the industry in these economies in the upcoming year and we see it as a risk for more sluggish recovery.
Market developments
CEE currencies keep strengthening against the euro and the Polish zloty outperforms as EURPLN dropped to 4.42. On the bond market, long term yields went down as much as 10 to 15 basis points in Hungary or Slovakia since the beginning of the week. In Romania, budget deficit for the months January to October reached as much as 4% of GDP. Last year, for the same period of time Romania had a budget deficit of 3.3%. Romania also announced the bond supply plan for December, and it plans to raise in total RON 4 billion (RON 3.5 billion in bonds and RON 500 million in T-bills.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.0850 after US data
EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains above 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood makes it difficult for the US Dollar to hold its ground after PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2850 as risk mood improves
GBP/USD maintains recovery momentum and fluctuates above 1.2850 in the American session on Friday. The positive shift seen in risk mood doesn't allow the US Dollar to preserve its strength and supports the pair.
Gold rebounds above $2,380 as US yields stretch lower
Following a quiet European session, Gold gathers bullish momentum and trades decisively higher on the day above $2,380. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield loses more than 1% on the day after US PCE inflation data, fuelling XAU/USD's upside.
Avalanche price sets for a rally following retest of key support level
Avalanche (AVAX) price bounced off the $26.34 support level to trade at $27.95 as of Friday. Growing on-chain development activity indicates a potential bullish move in the coming days.
The election, Trump's Dollar policy, and the future of the Yen
After an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and drop out of President Biden, Kamala Harris has been endorsed as the Democratic candidate to compete against Trump in the upcoming November US presidential election.