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Europe to run with the risk on baton

Asia-Pacific markets bounced back impressively on Wednesday, catching a wave from Wall Street’s rally that ended a tense three-day losing streak. The market mood seems as changeable as the weather, with a dramatic shift sparked by a major rally in Japanese stocks on Tuesday. The Nikkei 225, behaving much like a phoenix rising from the ashes, soared by an impressive 10.2%—marking its best performance since the heady days of October 2008. This came just a day after the index experienced its most chilling plunge since 1987, nosediving by 12.4% due to deepening recession worries.

On Wednesday, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi took to the stage, not to announce a magic show but to reinforce that the central bank’s monetary easing will stay the course amid the rollercoaster ride in global financial markets. His reassurance acted like a financial security blanket, calming jittery markets and effectively signalling continued protective intervention.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index didn’t just tip-toe forward; it leapt over 1%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 tiptoed up by a modest 0.2% following the release of intriguing trade data. According to customs statistics, China’s imports in July grew faster than anticipated, hinting at an appetite for growth. However, export growth seemed to have hit a bit of a snag, growing by 7% compared to the expected 9.7%, and slowing down from June’s 8.6% increase. It appears even the export sector decided to take a slight breather.

As the markets begin to regain their balance, Europe might be ready to grab the baton and sprint forward, hoping to continue this relay race of recovery.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is currently navigating a tricky financial landscape, not only because the operators of their capital markets are probably way offside due to Monday's meltdown but also due to a colossal public debt burden that makes even a minor market upheaval as unwelcome as a skunk at a garden party. Over the years, the BOJ's heavy-handed involvement in the bond markets has lulled the world into a false sense of security, almost like dozing off under the comforting blanket of the BOJ's market maneuvers. When they finally decided to stir with a poorly-timed rate cut, it felt more like a horror movie jump scare than a strategic move.

The BOJ has a penchant for the art of floating trial balloons, testing the waters with all the subtlety of a ninja and forever leaving the backdoor open. Yet, the global market's response to these maneuvers was anything but favourable. Every seasoned observer of Tokyo's financial scene knows well: if the market waves turn stormy and stock prices threaten to dive, the BOJ won’t hesitate to intervene swiftly, ensuring that stock values don't drop too drastically. So there you have it—the BOJ remains ever-ready to step in and smooth out the financial seas, quicker than you can say "intervention."

Author

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

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