Euro forex trade idea: How to play the long term trend accelerating higher

Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets.

Market summary

Price

EURUSD last price was € 1.087321.

Trend analysis

In the short term Euro has been accelerating higher. In the long term Euro has been accelerating higher.

Value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the EURUSD price increased 15 days and decreased 5 days.

For every up day, there were 0.33 down days.

The average return on days where the price increased is 0.3482%.

The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.6354%.

Performance

Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 2.03% percent.

Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.1015% percent.

Trade idea

With the long term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a long trade idea with an overnight time horizon.

Quant trade idea

Buy € 428,602 EUR, or 4.29 lots of Euro, take profit at € 1.0899 level with 50.05% odds for a € 998 EUR gain, stop out at € 1.0848 with 49.99% odds for a € 1,000 EUR loss through an overnight time horizon

Intraday predictions

EUR/USD trend analysis

EURUSD last price was € 1.087321. The long term trend accelerating higher is stronger than the short term trend accelerating higher. This trade goes long when price has been moving higher and accelerating over the past 20 days.

EUR/USD value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the EURUSD price increased 15 days and decreased 5 days. For every up day, there were 0.33 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.3482% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.6354% Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 2.03% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.1015% percent.

EUR/USD worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for EURUSD, is € 1.079929, and the best case scenario overnight is € 1.094713. levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that € 1.0848 could trade and that € 1.0899 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Expected range

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for EURUSD, is € 1.079929, and the best case scenario overnight is € 1.094713. levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade

We are 50% confident that € 1.0848 could trade and that € 1.0899 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Probability Vs Payout Chart:

This graph contrasts the percentage payout of holding a position vs the probability that the payout occurs. The red and green columns represent the probability of stopping out and taking profit and their associated payouts.

Key Takeaways:

• Price today € 1.087321.

• Over the past 20 days, the EURUSD price increased 15 days and decreased 5 Days.

• For every up day, there were 0.33 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 0.3482%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.6354%.

• Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 2.03% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.1015% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: 1.0768 pips per day higher.

• Over the last session, the price increased by 30.46 pips.

• Over the last session, the price increased by 0.2801 %.

• Over the last session, the price accelerated by 26.56 pips.