Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
EUR/USD
The euro has been pressured in the past couple of sessions. Breaking below $1.1100 and the early January support of $1.1085 is asking serious questions of the medium term bull control. The three and a half month uptrend rises at $1.1075 today and it adds even greater importance to the support of the latest key higher low at $1.1065. A breach of $1.1065 on a closing basis would be a significant breakdown of the positive outlook. The selling pressure in recent weeks has left a series of lower highs and lower lows as a three week downtrend drops back to meet the three and a half month uptrend. The fact that the RSI is hovering around the 40/45 mark, with MACD lines dropping back to neutral, shows that this is a key inflection point. Having steadied the decline yesterday (admittedly on a low volume US public holiday), once more EUR/USD is around $1.1100. However, it is becoming apparent that until the three week downtrend is breached (today around $1.1150) then this negative near term move will dominate. RSI below 40 and MACD lines below neutral would hint at a potential downside break of $1.1065. For now though the medium term uptrend is holding.
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