Vasilis Tsaprounis
Independent Analyst
The single European currency is trading near the 1.0850 in the early hours of Monday, awaiting data on inflation for the German economy, with investors remaining extremely cautious, avoiding big bets.
A little earlier, retail sales in the German economy showed a positive tone, which exceeded estimates, giving a small boost to the European currency, managing to move a little further away from the level of 1,08.
President Donald Trump continues to monopolize interest with the ''tariffs dance'' remaining high on investors' agenda.
Unfortunately, the messages from the Ukrainian front are not pleasant and as I had mentioned in previous articles, unfortunately I was confirmed as indeed the thorns until the final ceasefire remain big and the optimism of the previous weeks has been tempered.
The general market picture seems to remain stable, with the pattern of the previous days has a good chance of continuing as the pair remains heavy. Investors avoid taking big bets and it is possible that the exchange rate will have difficulty breaking some critical levels.
Apart from President Donald Trump '' tariffs dance'', interest still remains high in developments on the Ukrainian front and European politics, especially after the recent announcements of a gigantic increase in spending on infrastructure and defense.
The European economy continues to be a concern and it is not certain when the positive effects of the defense and infrastructure support packages from the eurozone states will be seen in the real economy.
Today's agenda is rounded off by the Chicago PMI index about business conditions across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, which often acts as a proxy of business conditions in the United States.
No changes in my thoughts, i remain on hold and continue to have my doubts about how the European currency could re-fuel a strong bullish cycle. I would give good odds to the scenario where the exchange will rate remains ''heavy'' without any significant direction at the moment.
Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer. Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD jumps back above 1.1000 on renewed US Dollar sell-off
EUR/USD is posting sizeable gains above 1.1000 in early Europe on Monday. EU prepares for retaliatory tariffs and rekindles the global trade war and US recession fears, drowning the US Dollar again aross the board. Traders now look to the EU Sentix and Retail Sales data.
GBP/USD holds recovery gains above 1.2900 amid fresh US Dollar weakness
GBP/USD clings to recovery gains above 1.2900 in European trading on Monday. The pair capitalizes on renewed US Dollar weakness as risk sentiment takes a fresh hit, with European traders hitting their desks. Trump's tariffs-led US recession fears and dovish Fed bets keep the USD undermined.
Gold price rebounds swiftly from multi-week low; lacks follow-through
Gold price reverses an Asian session slide to over a three-week low, though it lacks follow-through. Recession fears continue to weigh on investor sentiment and benefit the safe-haven commodity. Bets for more aggressive Fed rate cuts undermine USD and also lend support to the XAU/USD pair.
Crypto market wipes out $1 billion in liquidation as Asian markets bleed red
The crypto markets continue to decline on Monday, with Bitcoin falling below $78,000. The Asian markets also traded in the red, with Japan’s stock market extending losses to 8.5%, its lowest level since October 2023.
Strategic implications of “Liberation Day”
Liberation Day in the United States came with extremely protectionist and inward-looking tariff policy aimed at just about all U.S. trading partners. In this report, we outline some of the more strategic implications of Liberation Day and developments we will be paying close attention to going forward.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.