Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
Inflation is stickier around the world, with most central banks concerned about the core reading. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is the US PCE print. The ECB is closely watching the core. Both were released on Friday.
If there is a divergence between these two readings, watch for a strong move in the EURUSD. So, if the Eurozone inflation level comes in higher than markets are expecting at 5.9% for the core level but the US Core PCE print comes in at 4.5% (below market expectations), then watch for EURUSD upside.
A divergence between these two readings today is likely to open up a divergence between the ECB and the Fed as monetary policy expectations will diverge on differing rate expectations.
The key thing to watch for is high inflation in one country and lower-than-expected inflation in the other.
Major Trade Risks: The biggest risk here is if both readings come in as expected.
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