EUR/USD Price Forecast: Wait-and-see continues amid mounting uncertainty

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0480

• United States President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on the EU.
• The US macroeconomic calendar includes some relevant figures on Thursday.
• EUR/USD extends its consolidative phase, limited bearish potential in the near term.

The EUR/USD pair trades in the 1.0480 region, stuck to a tight range ever since the week started amid the absence of relevant macroeconomic data and uncertainty about United States (US) trade policies. The US President Donald Trump revived concerns on Wednesday after saying tariffs on neighbour countries Canada and Mexico will go into effect in the upcoming weeks.  

Additionally, Trump noted that levies will soon come to European Union (EU) goods, claiming the EU was “formed to screw the United States.” There were not many details, but a 25% levy is on the table. The European Commission reacted by saying it would reply firmly and immediately to unjustified trade barriers. Finally, Trump cut ties with Venezuela and reversed all oil-related concessions granted by the previous Joe Biden administration.

Data-wise, the macroeconomic calendar has been a bit more busy. The EU released January Money Supply figures, which rose by 3.6% from a year earlier, worse than the 3.8% anticipated by market players. Additionally, Consumer Confidence, as estimated by the European Commission, remained steady at -13.6 in February.

The American session will bring January Durable Goods Orders, a revision of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), weekly unemployment figures, and another presser from US President Donald Trump. Later, several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will appear at different events, with investors eyeing comments on future monetary policy decisions.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair is hovering around its opening in the daily chart, still unable to find a clear way. The pair remains below a bearish 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic resistance at around 1.0535. A mildly bullish 20 SMA acts as support at around 1.0420. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within positive levels, although with divergent directional slopes, failing to provide clues on what’s next for EUR/USD.

The 4-hour chart shows the pair is battling below a mildly bearish 20 SMA, while the 100 and 100 SMAs aim modestly higher, far below the current level, limiting the bearish potential of EUR/USD. Technical indicators are stuck around their midlines, in line with the lack of directional strength.

Support levels: 1.0420 1.0385 1.0330

Resistance levels: 1.0535 1.0560 1.0600