EUR/USD Price Forecast: Surrenders 1.0400 on strong US data, Trump’s comments

• EUR/USD declines over 0.46% below 1.0400 after Trump proposes tariffs, boosting demand for the safe-haven Dollar.
• US Services PMI and JOLTS job openings exceed expectations, signaling robust economic strength.
• Eurozone inflation edges higher, but ECB's anticipated aggressive rate cuts may weaken the Euro further against the Dollar.

The EUR/USD reversed its course and ended Tuesday's trading day with losses of over 0.46% after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, sparking risk aversion which bolstered the Greenback. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.0342.

Euro falls as US economic indicators outperform expectations.

Data from the United States paints an optimistic outlook for its economy. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed the Services PMI for December, which surprisingly exceeded estimates of 53.3, expanded by 54.1, up from a 52.1 November reading. At the same time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the JOLTS job openings rose sharply, exceeding forecasts of 7.70 million to 8.098 million.

The U.S. trade deficit expanded in November to $78.2 billion, up from October's $73.6 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

In the meantime, the Eurozone (EU) released the latest inflation figures. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), jumped by 2.4% YoY in December, up from the 2.2% registered in the previous month, yet aligned with forecasts. The core HICP rose by 2.7%, matching expectations and the November figure.

Following the data, the EUR/USD seesawed at around the 1.0390 – 1.0410 area. Nevertheless, once Trump crossed the wires, investors ditched the Euro in favor of the US Dollar, with the pair sliding below 1.0400, extending its losses beneath 1.0350.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) pared some of its Monday’s losses, gaining over 0.39% up at 108.70. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield rose sharply more than six basis points (bps) to 4.687%.

Expectations for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve were trimmed. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December 2025 fed funds interest rates contract indicates that market players expect just 50 bps of easing. Therefore, a further EUR/USD downside is seen, as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower rates faster than the Fed.

This week, the schedule will feature the EU’s services sentiment, producer prices, and German Retail Sales. In the US, investors are eyeing Fed speeches, the ADP National Employment Change report for December, Initial Jobless Claims, and the Fed’s last meeting minutes.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD daily chart suggests the pair has formed a ‘tweezers top’ chart pattern, which could pave the way for further losses. Once the pair fell under 1.0350, major support was seen at 1.0300. On further weakness, the pair could test the year-to-date (YTD) low of 1.0222, followed by 1.0200 ahead of parity. Conversely, if buyers reclaim 1.0400, they could challenge the current week's peak at 1.0436, ahead of 1.0450 and 1.0500. A further upside could be achieved if bulls clear the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0540.