EUR/USD Price Forecast: Short-term top in place?

The upside bias in EUR/USD appears to have once again run out of steam in the 1.1870/80 band, hinting at the idea that the pair could move into a consolidative phase in the very near-term and/or that a short-term top (near 1.1920) could be in place for the time being.

In the meantime, and always against the backdrop of the unremitting coronavirus pandemic (second wave already?) and the moderate pick up in the economic recovery across the globe, market participants keep their focus on the US political arena, where the probability of another fiscal stimulus bill appears to have lost traction in past days.

Data wise, the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) should grab all the attention along with the ECB Accounts (Thursday) and preliminary PMIs in the core Euroland and the US (Friday). Investors should also pay close attention to the UK-EU front, as talks between both parties are expected to resume later in the week with trade and fisheries on top of the agenda.

Near-term Technical Outlook

EUR/USD met a tough resistance in the upper-1.1800s for the time being. The inability of the pair to surpass this hurdle in the near-term (ideally), should open the door to some consolidation as markets keep digesting the sharp July-August rally. On the other hand, the resumption of the upside should put the 1.1900 neighbourhood back on the radar as well as the so far 2020 highs in the 1.1915/20 band. On the selling side, the 1.1700/1.1690 region seems to hold well the occasional bearish moves, somewhat limiting the downside at the same time.