- EUR/USD added to the weekly recovery and flirted with 1.0870.
- The US Dollar weakened despite firm ADP and resilient GDP data.
- Germany’s flash Inflation Rate is seen ticking higher in October.
EUR/USD extended its weekly rebound on Wednesday, clinching its third consecutive daily advance and consolidating the breakout of the key 1.0800 barrier. In addition, the pair’s uptick flirted with the critical 200-day SMA near 1.0870.
On the flip side, the US Dollar’s (USD) rally showed signs of slowing, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreating for the third day in a row and retesting multi-day lows in the sub-104.00 region.
The move higher in spot came in tandem with some indecision in US yields across the curve vs. a sharp rebound in 10-year bund yields to multi-week tops around 2.40%.
Looking ahead, expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed next month are building. However, some officials have voiced scepticism. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic even hinted that the Fed might skip a rate cut in November.
Currently, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows nearly full pricing for a quarter-point cut at the November 7 meeting.
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut on October 17, bringing the Deposit Facility Rate down to 3.25%, aligning with expectations. ECB officials have taken a cautious approach to further rate decisions, emphasising the importance of upcoming economic data. ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed the need for careful consideration in future policy amid the evolving economic landscape.
Within the ECB, views on additional rate cuts vary. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel remarked on Wednesday that, although the US presidential election represents a major risk for European economic policy, the ECB does not need to take immediate action in response to any potential outcomes.
Schnabel also advocated for a cautious approach to monetary policy, opposing aggressive rate cuts. She argued that inflation is unlikely to drop below the ECB’s 2% target, supporting the case for gradual rate adjustments. This view differs from that of some policymakers in southern eurozone countries who are concerned that inflation could fall too low, possibly warranting cuts below the neutral rate.
She also defended a cautious approach to monetary policy, arguing against aggressive rate cuts. Schnabel maintained that inflation is unlikely to fall below the ECB’s 2% target, supporting the case for gradual rate reductions. This perspective contrasts with some policymakers from southern eurozone countries who have suggested that inflation risks falling too low, potentially necessitating cuts below the neutral rate.
Her colleague, the Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, argued that the central bank is nearing success in its fight against inflation, though some final steps remain. Echoing the sentiments of his French counterpart, Nagel pointed to persistently high inflation in services, currently at 3.9%, as a particular concern. He emphasised the need for close monitoring, noting that services represent the largest component in the consumer price basket.
As both the Fed and ECB weigh their next moves, EUR/USD’s trajectory is likely to be influenced by broader economic conditions. With the US economy currently outperforming the eurozone, the USD could maintain its strength in the near to medium term. A Trump victory in the upcoming election could provide additional support for the USD.
EUR/USD daily chart
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
Further losses may push the EUR/USD to its October low of 1.0760 (October 23), paving the way for a test of the round level at 1.0700 before the June low of 1.0666 (June 26).
On the upside, the 200-day SMA at 1.0868 leads, followed by the preliminary 100-day and 55-day SMAs at 1.0934 and 1.1021, respectively. The 2024 peak of 1.1214 (September 25) is followed by the 2023 top of 1.1275 (July 18).
Meanwhile, the pair's outlook should shift to bullish if EUR/USD clears it in a sustainable fashion.
The four-hour chart reveals some breaking out of the recent consolidative fashion. Nonetheless, the initial support level is at 1.0760, followed by 1.0666. On the positive side, the first barrier lies at 1.0871, followed by 1.0954 and 1.0996. The relative strength index (RSI) increased beyond 62.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0850 after EU inflation data
EUR/USD trades marginally higher on the day above 1.0850 in the European session on Thursday. The data from the Eurozone showed that the annual HICP inflation rose to 2% in October from 1.7% in September, helping the Euro hold its ground.
USD/JPY falls below 152.50 as markets assess BoJ policy decisions
USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure and trades below 152.50 on Thursday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy setting unchanged but Governor Ueda noted that the impact of foreign exchange rate on prices had become larger than in the past.
Gold holds near $2,780, looks to US PCE Price Index for fresh impetus
Gold stays in a consolidation phase after setting a new record-high of $2,790. US political jitters and Middle East tensions might continue to act as a tailwind for the XAU/USD. Traders keenly await the release of the US PCE Price Index before placing fresh directional bets.
Uniswap Price Forecast: Technical outlook suggests a bullish breakout ahead
Uniswap is trading slightly below $8 on Thursday after rejecting a key resistance level on Wednesday. A successful close above this threshold could indicate a rally for the decentralized exchange, bolstered by technical indicators showing a bullish crossover pointing to potential upward momentum.
German economy surprises in the third quarter
The German economy avoided a technical recession in the third quarter, showing unexpected growth. However, this does not change the fact that the economy remains stuck in stagnation.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.