Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EUR/USD
The Euro stands at the back foot in early Tuesday's trading, following fresh acceleration lower on Monday (after two long-tailed Dojis last Thu/Fri) that generated initial negative signal on marginal close below 1.1816 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1695/1.2011).
Fresh weakness requires repeated close below this level to sustain negative signal and open way towards pivotal supports, higher bases at 1.1750 and 1.1700 zone.
Failure to firmly break below 1.1816 would add to signals from two strong downside rejections last week that suggest bears are lacking strength and would add to initial signs of stall.
Rising momentum on daily chart and stochastic in sideways mode at the border of oversold territory, support scenario, along with German exports data, which missed the forecast but maintain an optimism that the economy remains on recovery track.
Near-term action may extend current mode without clear direction, as traders await signals from ECB's policy meeting on Thursday. Although the central bank is not expected to change the policy this time, markets expect to hear more from ECB's President Lagarde about the euro's strength and possible lowering inflation forecast.
Res: 1.1827; 1.1846; 1.1865; 1.1895
Sup: 1.1795; 1.1780; 1.1754; 1.1700
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The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
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GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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