EUR/USD outlook: At five-week high and testing key resistance zone ahead of release of US CPI data

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

EUR/USD

The Euro keeps firm tone and hits new five-week high in early European trading on Wednesday. Fresh bull-leg extends into third consecutive day and cracked pivotal barriers at 1.0830 zone, consisting of 100DMA (1.0823) / Fibo 61.8% of 1.0981/1.0601 downtrend (1.0836) and thin daily cloud (spanned between 1.0820 and 1.0838).

Technical picture on daily chart is bullish (strong positive momentum / daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen bull cross) and continues to underpin the action, though increased headwinds should be anticipated, as bulls challenge very strong resistance zone and stochastic is overbought.

Bullish scenario requires firm break higher to signal continuation of larger uptrend towards targets at 1.0885 / 1.0916 (Apr 9 high / Fibo 76.4%).

Conversely, failure to register a clear break higher would ease the upside pressure, but near-term action to remain biased higher while holding above broken 200DMA / 50 retracement (1.0790) reverted to solid support.

Caution of break and close below 200DMA which would sideline bulls and risk deeper pullback.

The single currency was inflated by the data released on Tuesday (German annualized inflation ticked higher in April and German / Eurozone economic sentiment improved well above expectations).

Markets shift focus to key economic event today – release of US inflation report for April, which is expected to give fresh hints to the Fed and likely accelerate the price action upon release.

Inflation in the US is expected to ease in April (CPI y/y Apr 3.4% f/c vs Mar 3.5%; Core CPI y/y Apr 3.6% vs Mar 3.8%) with April figures in line or below expectations to fuel expectations for Fed rate cut in coming months and increase pressure on dollar, while higher than expected readings would sour the sentiment about policy easing and inflate the greenback.

Res: 1.0838; 1.0885; 1.0891; 1.0942.
Sup: 1.0812; 1.0790; 1.0774; 1.0746.

Interested in EUR/USD technicals? Check out the key levels

1. R3 1.0899
2. R2 1.0863
3. R1 1.0841
PP 1.0804
1. S1 1.0783
2. S2 1.0746
3. S3 1.0724

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD retreats below 1.1800 following earlier rebound

EUR/USD loses its recovery momentum and trades little-changed on the day below 1.1300 in the second half of the day on Wednesday. The modest improvement seen in risk mood limits the US Dollar's gains and allows the pair to hold its ground.

GBP/USD clings to small gains above 1.3500

GBP/USD is posting moderate gains above 1.3500 on Wednesday. The pair edges higher as the US Dollar meets fresh supply amid a modest improvement seen in risk sentiment following US President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union address.

Gold rises toward $5,200, supported by geopolitics and trade jitters

Gold buyers are back in the game, eyeing $5,200 and beyonf on Wednesday after seeing a correction from monthly highs on Tuesday. The US Dollar slips after Trump’s SOTU fails to impress and as AI-driven worries ease. Dovish Fed bets also weigh. Gold looks north so long as the key 61.8% Fibo resistance at $5,142 holds on the daily chart.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple post cautious recovery amid downside risks

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are posting a cautious recovery on Wednesday following a market correction earlier this week. BTC is approaching a key breakdown level, while ETH and XRP are rebounding from crucial support levels.

Nvidia remains at the heart of the AI boom

Nvidia remains at the heart of the AI boom, with Q4 revenue projected near $65.6–66.1 billion, nearly 70% higher year-over-year. But investors are watching cash flow, leverage, and broader AI adoption. Growth is strong, but the AI stress isn’t over.

Cosmos Hub Price Forecast: ATOM rebounds slightly, bearish outlook remains intact

Cosmos Hub (ATOM) price rebounds, trading above $2.05 at the time of writing on Wednesday, after undergoing a sharp correction since last week. Weakening on-chain and derivatives data support a bearish outlook, while technical analysis remains unfavorable.