Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
EUR/USD
The enormous rally on EUR/USD has now smashed through the key resistance of the pivot band $1.1065/$1.1100. The market continues to price for a drastically more dovish Federal Reserve than current rates suggest. Even this morning, EUR/USD continues to rise. Having breached $1.1100 this has been a key move which now, incredibly, re-opens the January highs again. An intraday breach of $1.1170 means that $1.1200/$1.1240 is now a realistic test. Momentum indicators are decisive in their improvement, with Stochastics into strong bullish configuration now, and MACD lines accelerating in their improvement. The intriguing indicator is the RSI, which is now at 70 today. This has been a limiting point on recent bull runs (in October and early January). Historically also, the RSI has not been above 70 since January 2018. It is very rare for the RSI on EUR/USD to go outside its 30/70 points, but the February sell-off went decisively below, and now the rally is above 70. These are not normal times. The pivot at $1.1065/$1.1100 is now supportive and given the momentum of the move higher, a retest of $1.1200/$1.1240 is likely.
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