- The US Dollar strengthened sharply following US inflation data.
- The EUR/USD pair was rejected from above 1.0630 and tumbled.
- The short-term outlook remains bearish, with the following support levels at 1.0520 and 1.0490.
A stronger US Dollar has pushed the EUR/USD pair from weekly highs above 1.0630 towards 1.0520. US economic data reflects that fundamental factors still favor the Greenback, and combined with higher Treasury yields, exerted downward pressure on the pair.
The European Central Bank (ECB) released the minutes of its September meeting, revealing that "a solid majority of members" supported a 25 basis points interest rate hike. "The decision between raising rates and pausing was a close call, with tactical considerations also playing a role." The document did not have a significant impact on the Euro. On Friday, Eurostat will release Industrial Production data for August, and ECB President Lagarde will participate in a panel discussion at the annual meeting of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
The key driver on Thursday was the US Dollar, which was boosted by higher US yields. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, slightly above the market consensus of 0.3%. However, combined with the wholesale inflation data from Wednesday, it added evidence to the narrative of higher interest rates for a longer period.
The US Dollar gained momentum after the data and accelerated amid higher Treasury bond yields. The 10-year yield rose from 4.52% to 4.72%; it climbed more than 3% on the day. The Greenback ended its correction and could continue to rise, to test cycle highs, as fundamentals continued to favor it. On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is due.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
-638327374898653986.png)
The EUR/USD sharply reversed, falling from weekly highs, erasing days of gains. The decline has found support at 1.0525 so far, but bearish pressure persists ahead of the Asian session. Technical indicators on the daily chart have turned bearish, and the price is now below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
The reversal of EUR/USD took place near a key dynamic resistance, which marks the upper limit of a downward channel. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart point to further losses, but the pair is currently near the 1.0520 support level. Below that area, the next support comes at 1.0500. If consolidation occurs below 1.0490, it would increase the bearish pressure and expose 1.0460, slightly above October lows.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.