EUR/USD Forecast: Sellers to retain control unless Euro reclaims 1.0820
- EUR/USD declined to a fresh multi-week low below 1.0800.
- The pair could find a foothold in case risk mood improves later in the day.
- Market participants will pay close attention to US employment data.
EUR/USD came under renewed bearish pressure in the American trading hours on Tuesday and declined below 1.0800 for the first time in three weeks. The pair went into a consolidation phase on Wednesday and was last seen moving up and down in a tight channel.
Although the initial reaction to mixed macroeconomic data releases from the US caused the US Dollar (USD) to lose some interest, the currency managed to gather strength as the market mood remained cautious.
JOLTS Job Openings declined sharply to 8.7 million in October from 9.35 million in September. On a positive note, the ISM Services PMI improved to 52.7 in November from 51.8 in October, highlighting a pickup of growth momentum in the service sector's economic activity.
Euro price this week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | 1.02% | 0.92% | 0.61% | 1.52% | 0.52% | 0.94% | 0.87% | |
| EUR | -1.04% | -0.09% | -0.41% | 0.51% | -0.53% | -0.06% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.95% | 0.10% | -0.31% | 0.60% | -0.41% | 0.02% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.63% | 0.41% | 0.30% | 0.89% | -0.14% | 0.31% | 0.26% | |
| AUD | -1.54% | -0.49% | -0.60% | -0.92% | -1.06% | -0.59% | -0.64% | |
| JPY | -0.55% | 0.52% | 0.57% | 0.13% | 1.07% | 0.47% | 0.37% | |
| NZD | -0.95% | 0.08% | -0.02% | -0.33% | 0.58% | -0.43% | -0.06% | |
| CHF | -0.91% | 0.15% | 0.03% | -0.26% | 0.63% | -0.39% | 0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Later in the session, the Automatic Data Processing will release the private sector employment data for November, which is expected to show an increase of 130,000. In case this number disappoints with a print below 100,000, the USD is likely to weaken against its rivals with the initial reaction. On the other hand, a positive surprise could cap EUR/USD's upside by providing a boost to the USD ahead of Friday's jobs report.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD faces immediate support at 1.0760, where the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart meets the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend. In the meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays near 70, suggesting that sellers could refrain from betting on an extended decline before the pair makes a technical correction.
Below 1.0760, 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) aligns as next support. On the upside, 1.0800 (static level) could be seen as interim resistance ahead of 1.0820 (200-day SMA) and 1.0900 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
