EUR/USD Forecast: Progress in peace talks boost EUR

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1114

Russia and Ukraine had hinted at progress in ceasefire and a diplomatic solution.
Global equities are on the run, while government bond yields ease from early highs.
EUR/USD is trading above 1.1100 and could keep advancing once above 1.1150.

A better market mood pushed EUR/USD above the 1.1100 mark as hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine mount. Peace talks in Turkey surprised with progress, as Moscow said it would drastically reduce, but not halt, military activity around Kyiv and Chernihiv to create conditions for dialogue. Additionally, Russia's mediator Vladimir Medinsky noted that talks have been constructive.

Stocks trade with a positive tone, while government bond yields remain flat on a daily basis, trimming early gains. A scarce macroeconomic calendar favors further sentiment-related trading. Germany published the GFK Consumer Confidence Survey, which declined in April to -15.5, while the US will release housing and employment-related figures after Wall Street's opening.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair trades near a high of 1.1116, and the daily chart shows that the price has jumped past a bearish 20 SMA after meeting sellers around it for two weeks. The pair is also trading above the 38.2% retracement of its January/March decline at 1.1070, the immediate support level. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator hovers around its midline, but the RSI indicator picked up and currently stands around 52, reflecting the over 130 pips advance.

The 4-hour chart shows that the price is nearing a mildly bearish 200 SMA, while the 20 and 100 SMAs converge around 1.0990. Technical indicators head north almost vertically and within positive levels, in line with the ongoing momentum. The next Fibonacci level is at 1.1150, with a break above it favoring a steady advance towards the 1.1230/40 price zone.

Support levels: 1.1070 1.1020 1.0965

Resistance levels: 1.1150 1.1190 1.1230

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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