• The EUR/USD retreated but remains within its recent range.
  • The US Dollar benefits from Fed rate hike expectations.
  • Eurozone: Inflation in Italy slowed in June; more CPI numbers due on Thursday.

The EUR/USD dropped on Wednesday, briefly reaching levels under 1.0900 and then rebounding during the American session, trimming losses. The Euro remains supported by European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike expectations, reaffirmed by Lagarde's comments. At the same time, rising bets of a rate hike in July from the Federal Reserve (Fed) support the US Dollar.

Inflation data from the Eurozone started to roll out. The Harmonised Consumer Price Index in Italy slowed to 6.7% in June from 8%.
On Thursday, Spain and Germany will report inflation, and on Friday, the Eurozone (EZ) CPI is due. The EZ headline is expected to decline from 6.1% to 5.6%. A different report released on Wednesday showed a decline in the GfK Consumer Confidence survey, with a decline from -24.4 to -25.4. It is the first decline since October.

Despite the decline in headline inflation, ECB members continue to talk about persistent inflation and the need to do more. Speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Lagarde reiterated that rates will likely rise in July. Regarding September, she said that it is "data-dependent".

Recent better-than-expected US economic data has boosted expectations of another rate hike from the Fed at the July meeting, offering an impulse to the US Dollar. More data is due on Thursday, with Jobless Claims and the third Q1 GDP estimate. On Friday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure is due and will be critical. The recent up move of the US Dollar looks stronger against Antipodean currencies but not necessarily versus the Euro, which also remains strong in the market.

 EUR/USD short-term technical outlook 

The EUR/USD dropped on Wednesday but held above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). It continues to trade in a range, holding above 1.0900 and limited below 1.1000. Risk continues to be tilted to the upside in the daily chart; however, technical indicators are starting to turn to the downside, such as the Relative Strength Index and Momentum. Overall, the pair shows a lack of clear direction.

On the 4-hour chart, the bias is to the downside, with the price under the 20-period SMA, which stands at 1.0925. A slide below 1.0900 could set up the scenario for a test of the next support located at the 1.0860/65 area. If the Euro regains 1.0930, it would strengthen the outlook. The next level to watch is the dynamic resistance at 1.0960. A consolidation above 1.0960 would strengthen the outlook for the Euro, exposing the weekly high at 1.0977, the last defense for a test of 1.1000.

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data

EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data

Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar

GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar

Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.

GBP/USD News
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700

Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700

Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.

Gold News
Geopolitics back on the radar

Geopolitics back on the radar

Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.

Read more
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures