- US Dollar gains momentum during the American session amid risk aversion.
- Key data ahead: US GDP on Thursday and Euro area inflation on Friday.
- EUR/USD hits fresh 13-month highs but retreats again.
Despite reaching fresh YTD highs and rising on Wednesday, the bullish outlook for the EUR/USD in the short term has remained unchanged. The pair was rejected from the recent top and pulled back as the US Dollar strengthened. The time for a rally above 1.1050 is running out.
The German Gfk Consumer Confidence survey improved in May from -29.3 to -25.7. On Thursday, Eurozone (EZ) consumer confidence data is due. The crucial day will be Friday, with German inflation and EZ GDP growth. Next week is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. A rate hike looks like a done deal, but the question remains: 25 or 50. The latest round of data favors a 50 basis points hike but renewed banking concerns and slowing inflation offers arguments to doves.
The Euro outperformed on Wednesday, while the US Dollar posted mixed results. On the same day, EUR/USD hit fresh 13-month highs, and AUD/USD and NZD/USD dropped to the lowest in a month. However, the Dollar ended the day stronger as Wall Street slipped again. On Thursday, the US will report Q1 GDP and Consumer inflation, critical numbers ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
-638181368637372024.png)
The EUR/USD rose on Wednesday and peaked at 1.1094, the highest level since March 2022, then pulled back below 1.1050. The trend is up and solid; however, the Euro failed again to make a sustainable run toward 1.1100. The more it takes, the more likely it is to stage a deep correction. But with critical events ahead, investors may stay on the sidelines.
The daily charts show EUR/USD supported by a bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0950. The 4-hour chart presents the pair above an uptrend line. Fresh highs are on the table as long as it remains above 1.0970; a break below would initially target 1.0950 and then 1.0910.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD retreats from daily highs, holds above 1.0800
EUR/USD loses traction but holds above 1.0800 after touching its highest level in three weeks above 1.0840. Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose more than expected in June but downward revisions to May and April don't allow the USD to gather strength.
GBP/USD struggles to hold above 1.2800 after US jobs data
GBP/USD spiked above 1.2800 with the immediate reaction to the mixed US jobs report but retreated below this level. Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose 206,000 in June. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.1% and annual wage inflation declined to 3.9%.
Gold approaches $2,380 on robust NFP data
Gold intensifies the bullish stance for the day, rising to the vicinity of the $2,380 region following the publication of the US labour market report for the month of June. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays deep in the red near 4.3%, helping XAU/USD push higher.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple lose key support levels, extend declines on Friday
Crypto market lost nearly 6% in market capitalization, down to $2.121 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) erased recent gains from 2024.
French Elections Preview: Euro to “sell the fact” on a hung parliament scenario Premium
Investors expect Frances's second round of parliamentary elections to end with a hung parliament. Keeping extremists out of power is priced in and could result in profit-taking on Euro gains.