EUR/USD Forecast: Euro remains stuck between key technical levels
- EUR/USD fluctuates in a tight channel below 1.0800 on Friday.
- Hawkish comments from ECB officials help the Euro limit its losses.
- The pair needs to break out of the 1.0700-1.0800 range to find direction.
Following a two-day rebound, EUR/USD failed to preserve its bullish momentum and closed virtually unchanged on Thursday. The pair continues to move sideways below 1.0800 as investors' search for fresh catalysts continues.
The US Dollar (USD) outperformed its rivals in on Thursday as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stretched higher after the Department of Labor reported that there were 218,000 Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending February 3, down from 227,000 in the previous week. Nevertheless, the currency struggled to gather further strength and helped EUR/USD limits its losses as Wall Street's main indexes held steady.
Meanwhile, cautious comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials on the timing of a policy pivot seem to be further supporting the Euro. ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks said that he was not optimistic for a rate cut in Spring and Governing Council Member Francois Villeroy de Galhau noted on Friday that the central bank will probably cut rates this year. Similarly, policymaker Pierre Wunsch said on Thursday that there is value in waiting to get more comforting wage data before taking policy action.
Euro price this week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.01% | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.03% | 0.55% | -1.16% | 0.86% | |
| EUR | 0.01% | -0.03% | -0.08% | -0.03% | 0.56% | -1.15% | 0.86% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.58% | -1.12% | 0.88% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.63% | -1.07% | 0.94% | |
| AUD | 0.03% | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.06% | 0.58% | -1.12% | 0.88% | |
| JPY | -0.55% | -0.56% | -0.61% | -0.62% | -0.57% | -1.71% | 0.31% | |
| NZD | 1.14% | 1.14% | 1.10% | 1.06% | 1.11% | 1.68% | 1.98% | |
| CHF | -0.87% | -0.87% | -0.90% | -0.96% | -0.89% | -0.30% | -2.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases on Friday. EUR/USD could show some signs of life toward the end of the European session amid week-end flows but investors could refrain from taking large positions.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
1.0800 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the latest uptrend, 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, descending trend line) aligns as stiff resistance for EUR/USD. If the pair clears that hurdle and starts using it as support, 1.0840 (100-period SMA) and 1.0870 (Fibonacci 23.6 retracement) could be seen as next resistances.
On the downside, interim support is located at 1.0760 (20-period SMA) before 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
