- EUR/USD edged lower early Friday after posting small gains on Thursday.
- An upbeat December jobs report from the US could weigh on the pair ahead of the weekend.
- 1.0920 aligns as key near-term technical support for the pair.
EUR/USD gained traction during the European trading hours on Thursday but struggled to extend its rebound in the second half of the day as rising US Treasury bond yields supported the US Dollar (USD). The pair stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory below 1.0950 as the market focus shifts to December jobs report from the US.
Euro price this week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | 1.12% | 0.40% | 0.80% | 1.53% | 2.78% | 1.36% | 1.19% | |
| EUR | -0.97% | -0.55% | -0.17% | 0.57% | 1.69% | 0.40% | 0.17% | |
| GBP | -0.41% | 0.55% | 0.41% | 1.12% | 2.47% | 0.94% | 0.71% | |
| CAD | -0.81% | 0.14% | -0.23% | 0.71% | 1.98% | 0.54% | 0.34% | |
| AUD | -1.56% | -0.58% | -1.14% | -0.76% | 1.08% | -0.19% | -0.40% | |
| JPY | -2.85% | -1.71% | -2.39% | -1.83% | -1.11% | -1.32% | -1.72% | |
| NZD | -1.37% | -0.39% | -0.94% | -0.55% | 0.20% | 1.28% | -0.21% | |
| CHF | -1.14% | -0.16% | -0.72% | -0.31% | 0.42% | 1.65% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
The positive shift witnessed in risk mood made it difficult for the USD to find demand early Thursday. After the ADP Employment Change for December came in at 164,000 to beat the market expectation of 115,000, however, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield climbed above 4% and helped the USD limit its losses.
Eurostat will release the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the European Central Bank's (ECB) preferred gauge of inflation, for December in the European session. Investors forecast HICP inflation to climb to 3% on a yearly basis from 2.4% in November. An upside surprise could help the Euro hold its ground but EUR/USD's action is likely to be dominated by the US data later in the day.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US is seen rising 170,000 in December, following the stronger-than-expected increase of 199,000 recorded in November. The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a 65% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower the policy rate by 25 basis points in March, down from 85% seen earlier in the week.
A NFP reading at or above 200,000 could cause investors to reassess the probability of a policy pivot in March and provide a boost to the USD. On the other hand, a disappointing print below 150,000 could attract dovish Fed bets and allow EUR/USD to stretch higher ahead of the weekend.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart stays above EUR/USD after completing a bearish cross with the 100-period SMA. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned south and declined below 40, highlighting the bearish bias.
1.0920 (200-period SMA) aligns as immediate support before 1.0880 (lower limit of the ascending regression trend channel) and 1.0850 Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend).
On the upside, EUR/USD could face resistance at 1.0970 (100-period SMA), 1.1000 (psychological level, static level) and 1.1050 (mid-point of the ascending channel).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends recovery beyond 1.0400 amid Wall Street's turnaround
EUR/USD extends its recovery beyond 1.0400, helped by the better performance of Wall Street and softer-than-anticipated United States PCE inflation. Profit-taking ahead of the winter holidays also takes its toll.
GBP/USD nears 1.2600 on renewed USD weakness
GBP/USD extends its rebound from multi-month lows and approaches 1.2600. The US Dollar stays on the back foot after softer-than-expected PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher. Nevertheless, GBP/USD remains on track to end the week in negative territory.
Gold rises above $2,620 as US yields edge lower
Gold extends its daily rebound and trades above $2,620 on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield declines toward 4.5% following the PCE inflation data for November, helping XAU/USD stretch higher in the American session.
Bitcoin crashes to $96,000, altcoins bleed: Top trades for sidelined buyers
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $100,000 milestone and touched the $96,000 level briefly on Friday, a sharp decline that has also hit hard prices of other altcoins and particularly meme coins.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.