EUR/USD Forecast: Euro finds support near 1.0800, bearish outlook remains intact
- EUR/USD recovered modestly after testing 1.0800 to start the week.
- The cautious market stance could limit the pair's upside in the near term.
- Several Fed policymakers are scheduled to deliver speeches later in the day.
EUR/USD tested 1.0800 at the beginning of the week but managed to find support at that level. The pair clings to small daily recovery gains in the early European session but the near-term technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains unchanged.
Euro price today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.12% | -0.09% | -0.13% | -0.17% | -0.08% | -0.16% | -0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | 0.04% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | -0.04% | -0.01% | -0.06% | 0.01% | -0.02% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.12% | -0.01% | 0.03% | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | -0.04% | 0.09% | -0.03% | -0.07% | -0.06% | 0.05% | |
| NZD | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.07% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.04% | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
The broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength on the back of upbeat macroeconomic data releases in the second half of the previous week forced EUR/USD to decline sharply.
While commenting on the policy outlook late Friday, Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Raphael Bostic said that he is less confident on the trajectory of inflation than he was in December and added that he was now anticipating the Fed to lower the policy rate once this year.
Later in the day, Bostic will be speaking again. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governor Lisa Cook are also scheduled to deliver speeches. The US economic docket will feature New Home Sales and Chicago Fed National Activity Index data for February.
Meanwhile, US stock index futures are down marginally in the early European session. In case Fed policymakers adopt a hawkish tone, Wall Street's main indexes could struggle to gain traction and allow the USD to stay resilient against its rivals.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 40, suggesting that the latest recovery attempt is a technical correction rather than the beginning of a reversal. On the upside, 1.0830-1.0840 (200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the latest uptrend) aligns as first resistance area before 1.0860 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0880 (50-period SMA, 100-period SMA).
On the downside, first support is located at 1.0800 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) before 1.0760 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
