EUR/USD Forecast: Euro could weaken further unless it stabilizes above 1.0950


  • EUR/USD edged higher early Tuesday following Monday's decline.
  • US Retail Sales data will be watched closely by market participants later in the day.
  • The pair needs to confirm 1.0950 as support to shake off the bearish pressure.

EUR/USD dropped below 1.0900 for the first time since early July on Monday but managed to close the day a few pips above that level. The pair needs to clear 1.0950 hurdle and stabilize above that level to extend its rebound.

The broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength amid risk aversion weighed on the pair in the first half of the day on Monday. Following a bearish opening, however, major equity indexes in the US climbed into the positive territory and limited USD's gains.

Investors remain cautious early Tuesday but trading conditions on the Assumption Day holiday in Europe, causing trading conditions to thin out and not allowing EUR/USD to make a decisive move in either direction.

In the second half of the day, Retail Sales data for July will be featured in the US economic docket. Markets expect sales to grow 0.4% following June's 0.2% increase. Although a positive reading could help the USD find demand, the market reaction could remain short-lived. Big retailers, such as Home Depot, Walmart and Target, will be reporting earnings figures this week and an upbeat US Retail Sales data could help the risk mood improve, making it difficult for the USD to continue to outperform its rivals.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 50, highlighting the lack of recovery momentum. On the downside, 1.0900 (psychological level, mid-point of the descending channel) aligns as immediate support ahead of 1.0860 (lower limit of the descending channel).

On the upside, 1.0950 (upper limit of the descending channel) aligns as critical resistance. This level is also reinforced by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If EUR/USD rises above that level and confirms it as support, it could extend its recovery toward 1.1000 (psychological level, 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart) and 1.1030 (200-period SMA).

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data

EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data

Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar

GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar

Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.

GBP/USD News
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700

Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700

Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.

Gold News
Geopolitics back on the radar

Geopolitics back on the radar

Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.

Read more
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures