|premium|

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro could have a hard time clearing 1.0750

  • EUR/USD has regained its traction in the European morning.
  • Improving risk mood seems to be helping the pair edge higher.
  • Investors could remain reluctant to bet on further Euro strength ahead of Fed.

Following a consolidation phase at around 1.0700 in the Asian session, EUR/USD has regained its traction and climbed to a weekly highs above 1.0730 in the European morning. Although the positive shift witnessed in risk sentiment could help the pair keep its footing, investors could refrain from betting on a steady uptrend ahead of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy announcements.

While testifying before the European Parliament on Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde noted that they would have indicated that further rate hikes will be needed if there were no tensions in markets. She also repeated that inflation in the Eurozone is projected to remain too high for too long. These comments failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction but allowed the Euro to stay resilient against its major rivals.

Reflecting the upbeat market mood, Euro Stoxx 50 is up more than 1.5% in the early European session. Moreover, US stock index futures are up around 0.3%.

ZEW Survey's Economic Sentiment Index for Germany and the Eurozone will be featured in the European economic docket. The survey is forecast to reveal a deterioration in sentiment in March due to the Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse turmoil. In case the decline is more severe than expected, the Euro could lose some interest with the immediate reaction.

In the second half of the day, Existing Home Sales from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus. As mentioned above, however, markets are unlikely to take large positions before the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart holds comfortably above 50, suggesting that buyers remain in control. On the upside, 1.0750 (static level) aligns as key resistance. In case the pair manages to flip that level into support, it could target 1.0770 (static level) and 1.0800 (static level, psychological level) next.

First support is located at 1.0700 (psychological level, static level, ascending trend line) before 1.0660 (200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) and 1.0640 (100-period SMA).

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to PremiumSign In

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds lower ground near 1.1850 ahead of EU/ US data

EUR/USD remains in the negative territory for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.1850 in European trading on Friday. A broadly cautious market environment paired with modest US Dollar demand undermines the pair ahead of the Eurozone GDP second estimate and the critical US CPI data. 

GBP/USD keeps losses around 1.3600, awaits US CPI for fresh impetus

GBP/USD holds moderate losses at around 1.3600 in the European session on Friday, though it lacks bearish conviction. The US Dollar remains supported amid softer risk tone and ahead of the US consumer inflation figures due later in the NA session on Friday. 

Gold trims intraday gains to $5,000 as US inflation data loom

Gold retreats from the vicinity of the $5,000 psychological mark, though sticks to its modest intraday gains heading into the European session. Traders now look forward to the release of the US consumer inflation figures for more cues about the Fed policy path. The outlook will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding bullion.

US CPI data set to show modest inflation cooling as markets price in a more hawkish Fed

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish January’s Consumer Price Index data on Friday, delayed by the brief and partial United States government shutdown. The report is expected to show that inflationary pressures eased modestly but also remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

A tale of two labour markets: Headline strength masks underlying weakness

Undoubtedly, yesterday’s delayed US January jobs report delivered a strong headline – one that surpassed most estimates. However, optimism quickly faded amid sobering benchmark revisions.

Solana Price Forecast: Mixed market sentiment caps recovery

Solana (SOL) is trading at $79 as of Friday, following a correction of over 9% so far this week. On-chain and derivatives data indicates mixed sentiment among traders, further limiting the chances of a price recovery.