EUR/USD Forecast: Dollar higher as risk-aversion grows

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0933

US data came in better than anticipated but triggered no market’s reaction.
The COVID-19 pandemic maintained investor’s hunger for safety.
EUR/USD bearish, nearing a Fibonacci support level at 1.0890.

The EUR/USD pair has resumed its decline this Wednesday, as the pandemic gloom and doom continues to favour the American currency. The pair traded as low as 1.0904, unable, however, to extend its slide despite better-than-anticipated US data. The greenback appreciated throughout the Asian and European sessions, as speculative interest moved away from high-yielding equities, with global indexes in the red. US President Trump has finally acknowledged the risk poised to lives and warned the US of “painful” two weeks ahead. The number of cases in the US is now above 190,000 and a New Yorker dies every six minutes.

Markit released the final readings of its March manufacturing index, which were revised lower in Europe. The German PMI was confirmed at 45.4, while for the whole Union, it came in at 44.5. The US number was also downwardly revised from 49.2 to 48.5. However, the official ISM manufacturing index came in at 49.1 from 50.1 in February, beating the market’s forecast of 45. The ADP Survey showed that the private sector lost 27,000 positions in March, much better than the -150K expected, although down from 179K in February. The market was unimpressed by the figures but will focus on US weekly unemployment figures with claims seen at 3.5M for the week ended March 27.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair has spent most of the last session of the day trading below the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily advance at 1.0950. In the short-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk is skewed to the downside as the pair has fallen below all of its moving averages, as technical indicators remain within negative levels, the Momentum recovering but the RSI flat near oversold readings. The 50% retracement of the mentioned rally provides support at 1.0890.

Support levels: 1.0890 1.0850 1.0810

Resistance levels: 1.0960 1.1000 1.1045

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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