EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls paused ahead of key macro headlines

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0923

• Financial markets looking stable at the beginning of a new week as concerns recede.
• The United States will publish the July Consumer Price Index next Wednesday.
• EUR/USD is technically neutral in the near term, but bulls hold the grip.

The EUR/USD pair trades uneventfully around the 1.0920 level on Monday, unable to attract investors one way or the other. Financial markets started the week with a calmer mood, as solid gains among US equities on Friday partially offset concerns about the United States´s (US) economic health. A batch of tepid US data fueled speculation about an upcoming recession and triggered bets about larger and sooner interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Speculative interest, however, stepped back ahead of key macroeconomic data to be released this week, as the US will publish an update on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. According to the market forecast, the CPI is forecasted to be 2.9% YoY in July, while the core annual figure is expected to be 3.2% for the same month, both ticking marginally lower from June’s readings. On the same day, the Eurozone will release the second estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), estimated at 0.3% QoQ.

Meanwhile, the macroeconomic calendar has little to offer. Germany released the July Wholesale Price Index, which rose 0.3% MoM, improving from -0.3% the previous month. The American session will not bring relevant macroeconomic figures, which means sentiment will likely continue to lead markets’ movements.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair seems poised to extend its latest cautious advance. In the daily chart, the pair develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) grinding higher above the longer ones. At the same time, technical indicators hold within positive levels, with modest upward strength. EUR/USD needs to extend gains past 1.0950 to gain bullish traction and retest its recent highs in the 1.1000 region.

EUR/USD is neutral in the near term. In the 4-hour chart, the pair hovers around a flat 20 SMA, while the longer moving averages provide support far below the current level. Finally, technical indicators head nowhere around their midlines, reflecting the absence of speculative interest.

 Support levels: 1.0890 1.0845 1.0800

Resistance levels: 1.0950 1.1005 1.1045