EUR/USD Forecast: Battle around 1.0800 continues, odds favor bears

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0807

• Inflation and employment updates from the United States and the Eurozone stand out this week.
• China's measures to boost the Yuan put pressure on the US Dollar at the weekly opening.
• EUR/USD could resume its decline once below 1.0790, the immediate support level.

The US Dollar gave up some of last week's gains on Monday as China announced another round of measures to boost the battered Yuan. The EUR/USD pair peaked at 1.0820 during Asian trading hours, as local share markets benefited from the Chinese decision to reduce the stamp duty on stock trading by 50%. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) also set a higher-than-anticipated fixed rate for USD/CNY. The announcements kept Asian shares afloat, leading to modest gains in European markets.

 At the same time, market participants are trying to assess Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's words. Speaking at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, Powell repeated that they are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate but added they would "proceed carefully" when deciding whether to raise interest rates again.

Nevertheless, the USD is fighting back ahead of Wall Street's opening. EUR/USD hovers around the 1.0800 mark as investors stay on the safe ground ahead of multiple first-tier events spread throughout the week. Over the upcoming days, Germany and the Euro Zone will publish the preliminary estimates of the preliminary estimates of the respective Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for August. On the other hand, the United States (US) will publish the July Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's favorite inflation measure, and multiple employment figures ahead of the August Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. A holiday in the United Kingdom (UK) exacerbates the quietness on Monday.

Data-wise, the EU published July M3 Money Supply, which fell by 0.4% YoY. The American session will bring the August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, foreseen at -21.6 from -20 in the previous month.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows it is stuck around a mildly bullish 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 20 SMA extends its slide below the 100 SMA, both well above the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, bounced modestly from their recent lows with limited upward strength and still well below their midlines. The chances of a steeper recovery seem limited as the pair would need to advance beyond 1.0930 to attract buyers.

The 4-hour chart shows that the risk remains skewed to the downside. A bearish 20 SMA at around the daily high rejects advances, while the longer moving averages gain bearish traction well above it. At the same time, technical indicators remain within negative levels without clear directional strength. Selling interest will likely increase if the pair falls below 1.0790, the immediate support level.

Support levels:  1.0790 1.0740 1.0705

Resistance levels: 1.0840 1.0885 1.0930  

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