EUR/USD eyes the end of wave four

The Elliott Wave Theory remains one of the most effective tools for identifying recurring market patterns and forecasting price action. In this update, we analyze the recent price movement of EUR/USD on the 1-hour chart, where the current wave count suggests we are nearing the completion of Wave 4—a critical area that could set the stage for the next bullish impulse toward the previous high.

Wave count context

The chart displays a completed five-wave impulsive move to the upside, labeled 1 through 5 in green, followed by a classic ABC corrective structure in blue. The corrective wave (C) appears to be in its final stages, with price approaching the 1.1339 level, aligning with the expected end of green Wave 4.

This type of setup is highly valuable for traders looking to enter in the direction of the prevailing trend, as it often signals a favorable point to catch the beginning of Wave 5.

What to expect next?

The technical plan is straightforward: we are closely monitoring price action for signals confirming the end of Wave 4. Once confirmed, the most likely scenario is a bullish rally that takes us back toward the previous swing high near 1.1475, marked by the blue horizontal resistance line.

Key confirmation signals:

• Support rejection: Look for clear bullish reversal candles or a double-bottom formation around 1.1330–1.1300.

• Break of the descending trendline: A bullish breakout above the trendline drawn from point (B) would reinforce the bullish setup.

• Volume confirmation: Rising volume on bullish moves would confirm institutional interest in resuming the trend.

Final thoughts

This is a pivotal moment for Elliott Wave traders. If the end of Wave 4 is confirmed, we could be looking at a strong upward move in Wave 5, potentially retesting previous highs. As always, patience and technical validation are essential before entering the market.