Vasilis Tsaprounis
Independent Analyst
Without significant changes in the overall market picture the European currency remains under mild pressure with the level of 1,08 having collapsed twice in the last three days.
The exchange rate continues to be ''heavy'' with the fluctuation range of the last three days being between 50 and 70 basis points as the feature of uncertainty has come back to the fore with investors avoiding taking big bets.
The breakdown of 1,08 level fully confirmed my thinking as expressed in the previous article as I had given a good probability to such a prospect.
President Trump's ''tariffs dance'', geopolitical developments on the Ukraine front, and political decisions on the giant defense and infrastructure packages in the eurozone still remain at the top of investors' agenda.
Despite the optimism for a quick end to the tragedy on the Ukrainian front after and the latest deal for Black Sea trade between US and Russia there are still many thorns left until an irreversible ceasefire.
The European economy continues to be a concern and it is not certain when the positive effects of the defense and infrastructure support packages from the eurozone states will be seen in the real economy.
The intense concerns about the significant impact of tariffs on US inflation have subsided but the landscape remains cloudy with the prospects for the interest rate gap between Fed and Ecb to remain in favor of dollar is the most possible scenario.
The brake on the European currency's amazing performance at the beginning of the month generally confirmed my thinking as I had significant doubts as to whether this rally could continue, but unfortunately I failed to find the right entry point in favor of the US dollar.
Today's agenda is relatively poor with Durable Goods orders in the United States being the only thing that stands out.
Overall, I don't see anything different. I continue to have my doubts about how the European currency could re-fuel a strong bullish cycle and I would give a good odds to the scenario where the exchange will rate remains heavy without any significant direction at the moment.
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